The main reason the winter weather behaved so differently from expectation was the failure of the stratosphere, atmosphere and Oceans to become coupled or linked in the ways they have so often in the past given similar conditions.
Now we are seeing a more normal coupling of the atmosphere and oceans, however at the same time we are seeing the El Nino strengthening rather than weakening.
These are not quite typical pattern behaviors and hence they cast doubt on weather outlooks for the next 30-90 days reducing confidence.
A weak El Nino favors an active Spring Jet Stream pattern across Dixie providing above-average rainfall.
Compared to a LA NINA spring tornado season research shows El Nino tornado concentration tends to be more traditional:
So despite some news-worthy tornado outbreaks in the Southeast that does not necessarily mean the whole season will be more threatening than normal:
Much modeling suggests warm trends. However, El Nino tends to lean cooler and a late strengthening of the Polar Vortex event signals loaded odds toward cool in May.
U.S. CFS2 MODEL FOR APRIL:
U.S. CLIMATE MODELS CONSENUS FOR APRIL:
INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE MODELS CONSENSUS FOR APRIL:
The World climate Service research found that in 8 past years with a similar polar region pattern since 1950 all 8 had cooler than normal May temperatures:
The National and International model equations on the other hand suggest warmer than normal for May. They also show above-average rainfall in May.
U.S. MODELS SEASONAL CONSENSUS FOR THE APRIL-JUNE AVERAGE:
INTERNATIONAL MODELS SEASONAL CONSENSUS FOR APRIL-JUNE AVERAGE:
SOIL MOISTURE BASED MODEL:
Above-average rain for the rest of Spring and into Summer is something they all show. Most indications point to a fairly normal tornado season for the country. But if cooler than normal wins out then it would probably be a lower than average tornado season.
The VERY preliminary outlook for Summer in Georgia is for above-normal rainfall with temperatures near-normal to a little above-normal but with a lack of extreme heat. No reason to expect drought at this point that’s for sure.
I’ll update the Summer outlook in May.
For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.