Weather

Tropical storm and hurricane season

The “official” hurricane season starts June 1st and runs through the end of November.

I've already posted on the coming season back on April 17th here.

Over the past 5 years or so tropical storms IN MAY have occurred more often than in the past record.

There are indications this could be another such season by the end of the May.

This is the typical genesis area and track zones for “early season” systems May/June:

Seasonal peak is September:

Most of the numerical and statistical prediction models point to near-neutral conditions or a WEAK La Nina in the Pacific for the heart of the season August-October:

ENSO El Nino vs. La Nina can be influential on the nature of the tropical storm/hurricane season:

Thanks in part to the mild winter and the +AMO the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean sea-surface water temperatures are above normal, and in some areas warm enough to support cyclogenesis:

Research finds that warmer than normal water near the U.S. coastline does not necessary increase THE NUMBER of total storms a season has, but DOES influence the strength of storms that form or move into those region and does increase the odds of an early start to the season.

The Pennsylvania State University team if forecasting almost double the average number of named tropical storms at 20 (average is 12). IF that number is actually reached it would make this the second most active season on record in number of named tropical cyclones.

Here is the CURRENT FORECAST CONSENSUS FOR THE 2020 SEASON:

The average predictions (orange dot on the line bar at the left) are all above-normal.

Although we can not predict where storms might go or even if they will hit land until there is an actual real life storm to track this is still very concerning, especially with regard to evacuations and shelter in the time of COVID-19. Also National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecasters are often working from home like the rest of us, making forecasting and communicating to the public more difficult. READ story in link below:

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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