Tropical Depression Nine forms, forecast to become a hurricane early next week

A tropical wave moving into the Caribbean formed into Tropical Depression Nine early Friday morning.

A tropical depression is a closed-center area of low pressure producing maximum sustained winds of 35 to 38 mph. Once sustained wind speeds strengthen to 39-73 mph, the low becomes a tropical storm and receives a name.

Tropical Depression Nine is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm as early as Friday afternoon, at which it would receive the name “Ian”.

Note: A tropical depression off the coast of Africa quickly strengthened into a tropical storm Friday afternoon, at which it received the name “Hermine”.

Ian is further expected to strengthen into a major Category 3 hurricane through the weekend before impacting Florida with heavy rain, rough surf and storm surge as early as Monday.

Ian is forecast to make landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast as early as Wednesday morning. Ian is then expected to move northeast and impact the U.S. Eastern Seaboard, including the coast of South Carolina and the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Bear in mind that the exact storm strength, timing and location of landfall will change over the next 2 to 3 days. Continue to monitor weather forecasts if travel interests bring you to the Florida Panhandle, Central Florida, and the Carolinas early next week.

Below is additional information from the National Hurricane Center.

BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 3

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022

500 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND TROPICAL STORM

WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE

DEPRESSION...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.7N 71.3W

ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA

ABOUT 930 MI...1500 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch

for the Cayman Islands, including Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and

Cayman Brac.

The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for

Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was

located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 71.3 West. The

depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24

km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue

through Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest and

north-northwest on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the

center of the cyclone is forecast to move across the central

Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass south of Jamaica on Saturday

night and Sunday, and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday night

and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and

the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.

More significant intensification is forecast on Sunday and Monday,

and the system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the

Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO

header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by

early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late

Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica by

Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the

following rainfall:

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with

local maximum up to 6 inches

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up

to 12 inches

Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14

inches.

Heavy rains may begin to affect South Florida on Monday. Limited

flash and urban flood impacts may be possible with this rainfall.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of

higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to

3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas

of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.

Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in

areas of onshore winds on Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica,

the Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These

swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Reinhart

©2022 Cox Media Group