Over the past 4 months are thermometer has been on a roller coaster ride that would make the stock market blush and it will probably continue through at least March.
It looks like the seeds are already being sown to back off the big warm up with below-normal temps returning in the medium to long range.
The jet stream pattern map ABOVE shows the ECMWF forecast 500mb mean pattern the next 7 days.
The model jet stream forecast map shows the mean pattern change between the 10th and 15th:
Temperatures will respond accordingly the rest of this month:
GEFS Model concurs with the ECMWF Ensemble:
CIPS Analog guidance is supportive:
Top analogs from the GFS model show high pressure ridge blocking at 500mb over the Polar regions (red) forcing the jet down below:
Forcing another Polar airmass Southward as seen in projected 850mb temperature anomaly:
Daily fluctuations seen in the 15-day GFS Ensemble surface above or below forecast:
No brutal cold shown in our region yet but that could change once models sort out the chaos happening again in the South Pacific ENSO/MJO regions.
Rainfall the next 5 days looks on the light side:
But a little above-normal precipitation first half of February according the ECMWF model ensemble:
NOAA/CPC 30-DAY OUTLOOK:
ENSO and SSWE analogs are colder for the month on average:
Then the analogs get warmer mid-March:
NOAA/CPC is more restrained:
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