Still waiting for real winter

Just some spotty very light showers after midnight to around 7 or so Tuesday morning. Bigger weather threat by Saturday with rain and storms.

As I said in my last blog post on December 31st, since Autumn we’ve been in a cold comes and goes quickly pattern allowing temperatures to average warmer than normal.

All signs indicate this will continue through most or all of January, so if we are to get any snow or ice this winter it’ll have to come in February or the first half of March.

The MJO and QBO and Northern Hemisphere blocking teleconnections for now are in favorable positions for a cold trough West warm ridge East jet stream configuration:

MJO moves into phases 4, 5 and 6:

So after a brief chill the trend swings back the other way over the next 2-3 weeks. During the peak of the next warm spell don’t be surprised if we see temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal, maybe more, with highs in the 70s possible and record 80s elsewhere in the Southeast states.

We will have to monitor the potential for more heavy rain and/or severe weather in parts of the Southeast next Saturday including a tornado risk, details TBD.

This Weather Bell chart shows that we have similar key Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies that in the past have led to cold weather following a warm start to winter:

That does not mean it has to happen, as they say on Wall Street: the past does not guarantee future results. Given the warm global background conditions I won’t hold my breath.

Theory says that with us being at a low sunspot minimum and with a descending QBO Old Man Winter should attempt a comeback by February into the first half of March. There is not a lot of model support for this however at least for now.

For more Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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