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Still waiting for real winter
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Still waiting for real winter

Still waiting for real winter

Still waiting for real winter

Just some spotty very light showers after midnight to around 7 or so Tuesday morning. Bigger weather threat by Saturday with rain and storms. 

As I said in my last blog post on December 31st, since Autumn we’ve been in a cold comes and goes quickly pattern allowing temperatures to average warmer than normal.

All signs indicate this will continue through most or all of January, so if we are to get any snow or ice this winter it’ll have to come in February or the first half of March.

The MJO and QBO and Northern Hemisphere blocking teleconnections for now are in favorable positions for a cold trough West warm ridge East jet stream configuration:

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10d

MJO moves into phases 4, 5 and 6:

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mjo2

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mjo

So after a brief chill the trend swings back the other way over the next 2-3 weeks. During the peak of the next warm spell don’t be surprised if we see temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal, maybe more, with highs in the 70s possible and record 80s elsewhere in the Southeast states. 

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16t

We will have to monitor the potential for more heavy rain and/or severe weather in parts of the Southeast next Saturday including a tornado risk, details TBD.

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hopenot

This Weather Bell chart shows that we have similar key Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies that in the past have led to cold weather following a warm start to winter:

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maybe

That does not mean it has to happen, as they say on Wall Street: the past does not guarantee future results. Given the warm global background conditions I won’t hold my breath. 

Theory says that with us being at a low sunspot minimum and with a descending QBO Old Man Winter should attempt a comeback by February into the first half of March. There is not a lot of model support for this however at least for now. 

For more Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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News

  • On the eve of the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump, the president’s legal team said Monday called the case “flimsy” and a “dangerous perversion of the Constitution,” according to The Associated Press. The brief, which was filed Monday in anticipation of arguments expected this week in the Senate impeachment trial, dismisses the case as a “brazenly political act” by the House of Representatives, The New York Times reported. The legal team also claims in its brief that the “rigged process” should be rejected by the Senate, the newspaper reported. The brief further states that neither of the two articles of impeachment against Trump are valid because they do not state a violation of the law, the Times reported. The 110-page brief from the White House asserts the case was never about finding the truth, the AP reported. 'Instead, House Democrats were determined from the outset to find some way — any way — to corrupt the extraordinary power of impeachment for use as a political tool to overturn the result of the 2016 election and to interfere in the 2020 election,” Trump’s legal team wrote, according to the AP. “All of that is a dangerous perversion of the Constitution that the Senate should swiftly and roundly condemn.” Proceedings in the impeachment trial are scheduled to begin Tuesday.
  • You might know him as Khal Drogo. Others see him as Aquaman. Regardless, actor Jason Momoa brought plenty of smiles to patients and families at UPMC Children’s Hospital in Pittsburgh. Hospital officials said Momoa visited the facility while taking a break filming his Netflix feature in Pittsburgh, WPXI reported. The hospital posted photos on social media of the actor visiting patients at the facility. The Netflix movie, “Sweet Girl,” will begin filming in the fall. Momoa is producing it.
  • That was sew nice. A stray cat in Wisconsin lost her ears to an infection, but now she has some new ones after a woman crocheted her some new ones, WTMJ reported. The cat, named Lady in a Fur Coat, had to have her ear flaps removed according to the Dane County Humane Society. The feline was bought into the Humane Society in December and began treatment for chronic ear infections, spokeswoman Marissa DeGroot told CNN. The cat’s appearance was a little unsettling, so Ash Collins, who works at the Humane Society, decided to crochet Lady an ear bonnet, CNN reported. It took some gentle persuasion and treats, but the cat finally was fitted into her new purple ears. “It’s amazing because we see these strays and medical cases come in and I think we’re always surprised by their resiliency,” DeGroot told CNN. Less than 24 hours after the Humane Society posted the cat’s story on Facebook, Lady was adopted.
  • A New Hampshire man died Sunday night when his snowmobile fell through the ice on the largest lake in Maine, authorities said. Steven K. Allard, 56, of South Hampton, was returning from snowmobiling with his wife on Moosehead Lake when his vehicle broke through the ice on the west side of the lake, the Bangor Daily News reported. Allard’s snowmobile fell into the ice near the mouth of the Moose River, according to Mark Latti, a spokesman for the Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife. Allard was pulled from the lake at 10:15 p.m. but he was unresponsive, Latti told the Daily News. Allard was taken to an area hospital, where he was pronounced dead, Latti said. “Snowmobilers need to stay aware of their surroundings and understand that ice conditions can change quickly,” Sgt. Bill Chandler, of the Maine Warden Service, told the Daily News. “This section of the lake, where the Moose River flows into Moosehead Lake, always has poor ice, and that is why there are marked trails on the lake so that snowmobilers can avoid the bad ice in this area.”
  • A woman was shot Friday night after an argument at an Applebee’s restaurant in South Carolina, authorities said. Joseph Raekwon Rapp, 23, of Greenwood, was charged with attempted murder and possession of a weapon during a violent crime, The State newspaper of Columbia reported. The woman, whose name and condition were not disclosed, was shot twice in the upper body, according to Greenville police. She was taken to an area hospital for surgery, WHNS reported. According to a news release, Rapp and the woman were arguing in the crowded restaurant around 9:21 p.m., WSPA reported. Greenwood police Maj. T.J. Chaudoin said the relationship between the two was not immediately clear, but describe the incident as a domestic situation, the Index-Journal of Greenwood reported. “Obviously there were a lot of people eating here tonight who were very startled,” Chaudoin told the newspaper. Rapp fled the restaurant but later turned himself in at the Greenwood County Detention Center, the newspaper reported. According to the public index, Rapp was out on bond while awaiting trial, the Index-Journal reported.
  • Police in Fayetteville, North Carolina, said a man broke into a home and forced a woman and a 1-month-old boy into a car at gunpoint, according to WTVD. The home invasion and kidnapping happened Monday at 1:12 a.m. Wani Thomas broke into a home on Tangerine Drive and forced Jasmine Livermore and the baby boy, Nathaniel Thomas, into a vehicle, police said. Authorities are currently searching for all three. Thomas is considered armed and dangerous and last seen wearing a brown jacket with blue jeans. Livermore, 20, was last seen wearing gray pants, a brown shirt and a camouflage jacket. Anyone with information should call Fayetteville police at (910) 676-2597 or Cumberland County Crimestoppers at (910) 483-8477.