DTN research shows the trends in weather for each season over the past decade. In our neck of the woods a warming trend for Winter and Spring in particular with a wetter trend for Winter and Spring, a little drier for Summer and especially Fall:
They also looked at tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and Caribbean:
Weak El Nino conditions are expected to continue into the Summer to near-neutral:
ENSO or El Nino Southern Oscillation which includes La Nina and La Nada (neutral) impacts both tornado season and the hurricane season:
The seasonal outlook from the ECMWF and other models suggest warmer than normal Gulf and Atlantic waters with muted wind shear.
Tropical storm/hurricane outlooks are more accurate in the summer.
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