The big drop in temperature and humidity I first told you about in this blog space last Saturday is upon us but won’t last.

A more southerly air flow will resume by Sunday and as temperatures rise so will the humidity.

This will lead to the introduction of a more normal and typical weather pattern for this time of year, warm and humid with a mix of sunshine and clouds along with scattered mainly afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms, pretty much par for the course in late June and the rest of summer.

A stray late day thunderstorm is not out of the question Sunday but most of us will stay dry all weekend with a better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms next week:

SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

NON-computer model based methods such as the phase of the MJO, AAM, and GWO suggest much of the nation will experience a return of more pockets of heavy rain and severe weather. This looks especially true of the nations mid-section.

But as we finish out June and enter July both computer and non-model methods suggest at least some severe weather risk will return to the Southeastern U.S. probably in the form of "pulse-type"  thunderstorms a hybrid form of a single-cell thunderstorm, rather than any front. I've written dozen of blogs in the past explaining them and how they work in Georgia.

The fairly significant signal of a growing severe weather threat in the country can be seen from GFS Ensemble data of the Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) with a notable up-tick after June 15th and even more so after the 18th:

You can see the progression of this experimental NIU data from the accompanying analogs for significant tornadoes (top row) and hail (bottom row) for weeks 2 and 3 giving some spatial distribution:

CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE:

Further support comes from the WSI average severe weather index (mean of next 10-days):

This does not mean every day has severe weather the next ten but rather this is the cumulative aggregate over the 10-day period.

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.