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Relief from heat and dryness? 
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Relief from heat and dryness? 

Relief from heat and dryness? 

Relief from heat and dryness? 

An approaching front and upper level disturbance tomorrow brings a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but nothing to get excited about so the majority of us get missed.

Perhaps the rain chance will go up tomorrow but as it stands now only 20% or less with small amounts IF and when any occurs unless you get a lucky thunderstorm:

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qpt

The models are also trying to hint at some rain chance NEXT weekend, not this weekend. But as the rainfall anomaly chart shows most areas have below-average rainfall the next 10 days:

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qpfd

So we’re looking at record tying or breaking high temperatures the next 5-10 days and most of us stay dry.

BACK ON SEPT 13TH I did a blog showing how three of the primary global models were showing a break from the heat wave arriving today into the weekend. But unfortunately that output changed the very next day!

So I had to Tweet updates and new blog in the ensuing days. I blame myself for breaking my own forecasting rule about waiting for model consistency instead of jumping on one run. My bad. 

So what’s next?

As of now the operational/deterministic and ensembles of the GFS and ECMWF are again suggesting a pattern change in the heat wave with the upper level high pressure heat ridge shifting to our West beyond this weekend allowing a cooler Northwest flow of air into the Southeast USA by OCTOBER 5TH give or take a couple days as seen in the 500mb jet stream forecast:

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now

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9-DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

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TD

OPERATIONAL/DETERMINISTIC GFSv2 FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER:

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nst

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However, LETS NOT BELIEVE it just yet since the last bust reminded us to wait a few days to see if we have a consistent model signal instead of just one run. I’ll do updates if and when a cool off looks to be legitimately in the cards. 

Meanwhile, well to our West and North snow is starting to show up in the long-range modeling over the next few weeks, until recently CANADA had  not even had a frost or freeze in most areas (later than normal):

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snow

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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