Weather

Potential Tropical Cyclone One expected to become Tropical Storm Alex this afternoon

Potential Tropical Cyclone One formed Thursday afternoon off the Yucatan Peninsula in the Gulf of Mexico. As of 8am ET Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to observe a disorganized structure within the storm system, with an open center of circulation.

As a result, the tropical system does not meet the technical criteria to officially be called a tropical storm, but it is producing tropical storm force winds. In addition, it is quickly moving east and will impact the Florida Peninsula as early as Saturday morning.

Because of that, the NHC is issuing tropical storm advisories ahead of the storm, including Tropical Storm Warnings for the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast of Florida.

The tropical system is expected to develop a closed center of circulation later this afternoon, at which point it would be called Tropical Storm Alex.

Potential Impacts to Central and South Florida

As the tropical system makes landfall and moves through central and south Florida, gusty winds and heavy rains will cause flooding concerns from Orlando south to Miami. Wind gusts as high as 50 to 60 mph are expected throughout the weekend. As much as 2 inches of rainfall is possible in Orlando with 6 inches of rainfall possible in Miami.

Potential Impacts to the Florida Panhandle/Northern Gulf Coast

The core of the tropical system will remain well south of the Florida Panhandle and the Alabama Gulf Coast, which means blue skies and sunshine are expected for this region.

However, the surf will be rough due to the wind and wave action associated with the tropical system further south. This rough surf will continue to impact the coastline along Florida and Alabama, so heed any rip current advisories for the area.

Additional Information from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 3A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022

700 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

...DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN

GULF OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.4N 86.8W

ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas

* Florida Bay

* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key to Card

Sound Bridge

* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to

Card Sound Bridge

* Lake Okeechobee

* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and

Mayabeque

* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the

progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude

22.4 North, longitude 86.8 West. The system is moving toward the

northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an

increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and

continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the system is

forecast to move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through

tonight, across the southern and central portions of the Florida

Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north

of the northwestern Bahamas Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate

that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with

higher gusts. The system is expected to develop a well-defined

center and become a tropical storm later today, and some slight

strengthening is possible while it approaches Florida today and

tonight. Additional strengthening is possible after the system

moves east of Florida over the western Atlantic late Saturday and

Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to

the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the

Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO

header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will continue to produce

heavy rains across western Cuba through today. Heavy rain will begin

to affect Central Florida, South Florida and the Keys today through

Saturday, and affect the northwestern Bahamas tonight through

Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches.

This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys: 4 to 8 inches

with maxima of 12 inches across South Florida and in the Keys. This

rain may produce considerable flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches with maxima of 10 inches. This

rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area

in Cuba later today and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday,

and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm

conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba today and tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will

cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft

Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft

Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible over South Florida

beginning this evening and continuing through Saturday.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

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