Potential Tropical Cyclone One formed Thursday afternoon off the Yucatan Peninsula in the Gulf of Mexico. As of 8am ET Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to observe a disorganized structure within the storm system, with an open center of circulation.
As a result, the tropical system does not meet the technical criteria to officially be called a tropical storm, but it is producing tropical storm force winds. In addition, it is quickly moving east and will impact the Florida Peninsula as early as Saturday morning.
Because of that, the NHC is issuing tropical storm advisories ahead of the storm, including Tropical Storm Warnings for the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast of Florida.
The tropical system is expected to develop a closed center of circulation later this afternoon, at which point it would be called Tropical Storm Alex.
Potential Impacts to Central and South Florida
As the tropical system makes landfall and moves through central and south Florida, gusty winds and heavy rains will cause flooding concerns from Orlando south to Miami. Wind gusts as high as 50 to 60 mph are expected throughout the weekend. As much as 2 inches of rainfall is possible in Orlando with 6 inches of rainfall possible in Miami.
Potential Impacts to the Florida Panhandle/Northern Gulf Coast
The core of the tropical system will remain well south of the Florida Panhandle and the Alabama Gulf Coast, which means blue skies and sunshine are expected for this region.
However, the surf will be rough due to the wind and wave action associated with the tropical system further south. This rough surf will continue to impact the coastline along Florida and Alabama, so heed any rip current advisories for the area.
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
700 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022
...DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key to Card
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Card Sound Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and
* Northwestern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.4 North, longitude 86.8 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and
continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the system is
forecast to move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through
tonight, across the southern and central portions of the Florida
Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north
of the northwestern Bahamas Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. The system is expected to develop a well-defined
center and become a tropical storm later today, and some slight
strengthening is possible while it approaches Florida today and
tonight. Additional strengthening is possible after the system
moves east of Florida over the western Atlantic late Saturday and
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to
the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will continue to produce
heavy rains across western Cuba through today. Heavy rain will begin
to affect Central Florida, South Florida and the Keys today through
Saturday, and affect the northwestern Bahamas tonight through
Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:
Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches.
This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys: 4 to 8 inches
with maxima of 12 inches across South Florida and in the Keys. This
rain may produce considerable flash and urban flooding.
Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches with maxima of 10 inches. This
rain may produce flash and urban flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
in Cuba later today and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday,
and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba today and tonight.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft
Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible over South Florida
beginning this evening and continuing through Saturday.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
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