Weather

Peek at possible Summer weather

The models continue to suggest APRIL will average out near-normal to above normal on temperatures and rainfall, with brief up and downs on the thermometer.

To get a VERY PRELIMINARY look at the coming SUMMER pattern I don't yet incorporate models except to try to get a read on the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation).

Currently we are in what is known as the “Spring barrier” for ENSO where the models accuracy for predicting the state of the Pacific Ocean SSTA is poor. So for what it’s worth they presently show a neutral to weak La Nina for the Summer and Fall. This, if correct, hints at heat for summer in much of the country and an above normal number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic/Caribbean in the autumn.

To assess what the past can tell us about the future we look for analogs to recent weather behavior and current sea-surface temperature patterns around the hemisphere.

Using these and signals from how the winter played out plus recent and current jet stream patterns we can identify past years that are similar and use these as a possible guide to the future.

The total list of very preliminary analogs:

Using the “best match” from this winter yields these analogs:

So at this early juncture it looks like a widespread warmer than normal summer is on the way, a long hot summer that starts in May for some areas unless future analogs shift.

Confidence is fairly high for the temperatures but the rainfall outlook has lower confidence as there has been a trend since 2013 for wetter summers with the Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico running warmer than normal:

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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