Pattern of Spring and Summer to persist through September

Mini-heat waves come and go

The next 4 weeks or more temperatures should average near-normal to a little below-normal with rainfall near-normal to above-normal. (The average of the next 3-6 weeks, not every day or every week).

This is the average or mean for the rest of August and September which reflects a continuation of the weather pattern we have been in since the start of Spring. So the new heat wave starting will not last too long, periods of above temps and below will alternate along with wet and dry spells.

Henri being the third hurricane of the season by the 21st marks the first time since 2012 with 3 by that date. Only 6 other years in satellite era (1966 onwards) have had 3+ hurricanes and 1+ major hurricane by 21 August: 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 2004 and 2005.

Beyond Henri there looks to be plenty more tropical cyclone action to come in the weeks ahead. The next name up is IDA.

This fits the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) progression in phases 1-3 and the passage of a CCKW (convectively coupled Kelvin wave) which also help keep the tropics active with a possible Central American Gyre (CAG) with the monsoon trough in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Mexico and Texas need to monitor.

Notice the ITCZ (Inter tropical convergence zone) is active with tropical waves from the continent of Africa all the way West:

MJO PHASE 2:

MJO PHASE CORRELATIONS:

TRACK PREFERENTIAL BY MJO PHASE PRE AND POST 1979:

CLIMATOLOGY/HISTORIC PATHS:

ECMWF MODEL FORECAST PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST A TD 4-7 DAYS OUT:

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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