Outlook for May

Any big variations of rain or temp should not be long-lasting

The latest numerical variants for the month of May lack a strong consensus when it comes to how temperatures will play out, but the model consensus is for rainfall in North Georgia to be above-normal on average.

On temperatures the American and Canadian model equations are on the cooler side while the European model versions are warmer for the month of May average. But over all the models tilt slightly toward a slight positive anomaly in the Southeast.

I favor a continuation of the up and down back and forth temperature pattern for the first part of May with above-normal and below-normal spells alternating. The conversion to significant lasting above-normal warmth developing only gradually over time in the back half of May.

Despite what most signals show regarding rainfall, I do not expect the above-normal amounts to be extreme on rainfall in the 30-day average.

The PAST 7 YEARS IN A ROW had a tropical storm system form before June 1st. This is not expected to happen this May.

MODEL MAY RAINFALL:

IF the models are right about above normal rainfall it is imo unlikely to be a hot May in North Georgia.

ANALOG METHOD FOR MAY TEMPS AND RAINFALL:

The analog method supports the models on rainfall but is much warmer almost everywhere on temperatures.

NOAA/CPC MAY TEMPS AND RAIN OUTLOOK:

For more weather and climate info follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

Listen

news

weather

traffic

mobile apps

Everything you love about wsbradio.com and more! Tap on any of the buttons below to download our app.

amazon alexa

Enable our Skill today to listen live at home on your Alexa Devices!