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Novembrrrr, winter worthy cold snap
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Novembrrrr, winter worthy cold snap

Novembrrrr, winter worthy cold snap

Novembrrrr, winter worthy cold snap

The incoming cold snap would be noteworthy in the dead of winter, so this polar plunge is remarkable for this early in the season.

It is hardly unprecedented though so nothing we can’t handle. It is a fairly quick hit and run, in and out.

We probably will not break any records locally, but places not far away probably will and lots of records will probably fall in the Midwest, Great Plains and Northeast states. But records will be possible all the way to the Gulf Coast West of here.

Since this is dead of winter type polar air WINTERIZE YOUR HOME AND CAR/TRUCK. Turn-off water to the outside of the house and shut down decorative fountains.

Temperatures will fall hard and fast after the cold front passes through bringing a decent shot of rain to much of Georgia late tonight into tomorrow morning before the temperature drop. Some brief sleet or snow possible mainly in the Georgia mountains early Tuesday.

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I’ve been warning you about this pattern change in blogs and on Twitter Since November 4th:

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It’s not just the actual air temperatures that are impressive but also the geographic coverage of the arctic air mass with only the far West and South Florida spared. 

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We’re keeping an eye on the tropospheric patterns that can lead to more polar vortex splits and sudden stratospheric warming events in the months ahead that can lead to more cold air invasions after a warm-up.

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Novembrrrr, winter worthy cold wave

A couple snow periods will come with it for the Midwest, New England and maybe even parts of the Mid-Atlantic states with flurries possible in the Southern Appalachian Mountains (not Atlanta), an inch or more of snow in parts of Tennessee and snow flakes should be seen “in the air” in areas adjacent to TN as well and as far South as Northern Louisiana. 

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For some areas of the country it could end up being one of the coldest ever November air masses this early in the month. And America will not be alone as much of Asia and parts of Europe will share it. 

In ATLANTA during peak winter our normal high temperatures are in the 50s so this will be cold for any time of year with highs and lows below-normal and our first hard freeze coming early in many locales as the first official lows of 28 or lower is on average December 5th, a couple weeks earlier for the North suburbs. 

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This may naturally have you wondering if this means a cold December? Does this mean a cold winter?

Short answer no, at least not necessarily by any means. 

Research has shown there is SOME persistence of weather patterns from Fall to Winter and from November to December, but certainly not all the time. 

I mentioned an early cold wave is not unprecedented. 

Five years ago a similar big Southbound dip in the jet stream brought a big November chill:

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But December of that year very warm most of the country:

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What about last year? Did you already forget last November was colder than average?! Top 10 cold in many states just to our West and North.

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But the December that followed? Warm again. 

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In the past similar ENSO conditions/sea-surface temperature patterns in the Pacific with similar October weather as we have this year (left panels below) have lead to above-normal temperatures for much of the nation in October with cold out West like this year (right panels below):

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See the Decembers that followed like conditions in the past:

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Even without an official El Nino an El Nino-like base state of the background atmosphere response has revealed a tendency in the modern era where even in winters that end up being cold that December is biased above-normal and we’ve seen this in 2014, 2015, 2018. The 15-year or so trend has been for mild canonical El Nino Decembers. 

So a betting man would say the odds favor a mild spell to return late November and/or in December after the coming cold.

This does not mean December HAS to be warm, as some of the past similar El Nino-like Decembers have featured below-normal temperatures and a couple were quite cold in much of the nation like 1968 and 2009. 

That’s the thing about weather: it does not work in a straight line but rather is chaotic which is why predictions are hard. 

Here is the correlation between November and Winter:

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So there is NOT much signal from cold in November in Atlanta and a cold winter to follow, the signal is weakly positive especially if late November is cold not early November. 

Dr. Joe D’Aleo did research on what type ENSO patterns had the most month to month volatility and variability this winter looks to be active and changeable (on the higher end of the range this year but NOT quite the highest):

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It’s way to early for a specific Thanksgiving forecast obviously, so here are some interesting notes:

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Novembrrrr, winter worthy cold wave

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How November plays out and new data not yet in for October may tip the forecast for winter one way or another. I’ll update it as needed by the start of December at the latest. 

MY exclusive 5-Day FORECAST is always right here 24/7/365. Bookmark it. 

Download the WSB Radio APP for my forecast and my blog plus traffic and news alerts.

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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News

  • About a dozen American flags lined up along Highland Avenue in Needham, Massachusetts, were burned Sunday night, according to police. A dozen more flags set on the lawn near the Exchange Club were found destroyed, as well. According to Boston's WFXT, the flags have been replaced, but the ashes are still scattered along the grass. Longtime Needham resident Kate Robey takes it upon herself to display the flags on Highland Avenue during patriotic holidays. “I think everyone appreciates it. I get honks and the waves and the thank-yous,” Robey said. But this Fourth of July, the flags were vandalized. “Dedicated people put those out and to just burn them, nonchalantly, it’s hurtful,” said Robey. Robey has been working with the Needham VFW for years and has displayed these flags in the same parts of town for almost a decade now. She’s left confused and wondering why someone would vandalize her tribute to the men and women serving the country. “As I do the flags, I think of the veterans, fallen brave and the military out there fighting for our freedom now,” Robey said. Robey said about a dozen were burned by Memorial Park and a dozen more burned outside the Needham Exchange Club, where 500 flags were displayed in lieu of a scaled-back Fourth of July celebration. “I don’t mind what you do at your home with your flags, but these flags are my flags, and it’s vandalism,” Robey said. Police said they are investigating the matter.
  • An off-duty volunteer firefighter is being hailed as a hero after he rescued a baby while swimming at a Maryland park. According to the Oakland Volunteer Fire Department, one of its firefighters, Andrew Bell, heard a woman shouting as he swam at Swallow Falls State Park while off-duty on Sunday.  'A raft that a baby was floating on had flipped over, and the baby went into the water,' the department said in a Facebook post Sunday night.  Bell quickly found the baby, who was unconscious, the Cumberland Times-News reported.  'I put it on its back for a little bit, and it started spitting up water,' Bell told the newspaper.  Bell then called an ambulance and continued to help the family until rescue crews arrived, the Fire Department said. 'It's our understanding that baby is going to be OK,' the department added. 'Great work, FF Bell!' Bell told the Times-News that even though he wasn't on duty at the time of the incident, it was still his 'duty to go help that person.' Read more here or here.
  • A PGA golf pro, his son and two stepchildren were among the eight people who died in an Idaho plane crash Sunday, multiple news outlets are reporting. According to KPTV, Oregon residents Sean Fredrickson, 48; son Hayden Fredrickson, 16; and stepchildren Sofia Olsen, 15, and Quinn Olsen, 11, were killed Sunday afternoon when two planes collided over Idaho's Lake Coeur d'Alene and crashed into the water. All eight people on the two planes died in the crash, the Kootenai County Sheriff's Office said. Authorities said Fredrickson and the children were on board a Brooks Seaplane piloted by 58-year-old Neil Lunt of Liberty Lake, Washington, at the time of the crash, the Spokesman-Review reported. Officials have not yet identified a sixth person who also was on the plane.  The two people on board the other plane, a Cessna TU206G, have been identified, but officials have not publicly released their names, according to the Spokesman-Review. As of Tuesday, crews were still working to recover two of the victims' bodies, the newspaper reported.  Fredrickson, the Pacific Northwest PGA Section's president, was the lead golf pro at Oregon's Oswego Lake Country Club, according to KPTV. “A rising star in the PGA, Sean led the Section through an unprecedented time, first taking the reins a year early as president and then leading us wisely through this pandemic,” the Pacific Northwest PGA Section said in a statement. “We are all better because of Sean’s leadership over the past 12 years.” Fredrickson's wife, April Fredrickson, told KPTV that her family 'died while they were on an adventure.' 'I think that, at the end of the day, they died doing what they loved, which was ... being together,' she told the news outlet. Read more here or here.
  • Atlanta police released a new video and surveillance photos from its investigation into the shooting death of an 8-year-old girl. According to WSB-TV, Secoriea Turner was shot while riding in a car with her mother and her mother’s friend Saturday night. The shooting happened not far from the Wendy’s on University Avenue where Rayshard Brooks was shot and killed last month. The video shows a Black man in a white shirt carrying what police identified as an AR-15. Lt. Pete Malecki said the man is just one of several persons of interest in the case. “We believe there is going to be a minimum of three additional suspects. That number could change,” he said. “Although we have a lot of work to identify the remaining individuals responsible, this is the first step in that process.” Investigators said Secoriea Turner was riding in a Jeep Cherokee Saturday night when the driver tried to get around a “makeshift roadblock that was manned by numerous armed individuals.” Malecki said they believe the shots were fired intentionally into the car. At a news conference Sunday, Secoriea Turner’s mother said that her daughter died in her arms. “She was only 8 years old,” Charmaine Turner said. “She would have been on Tik Tok dancing on her phone, just got done eating. We understand the frustration of Rayshard Brooks. We didn’t have anything to do with that. We’re innocent. My baby didn’t mean no harm.” Secoriya Williamson, Secoriea Turner’s father, also spoke out. “They say Black lives matter,” Williamson said. “You killed your own this time. You killed a child. She didn’t do nothing to nobody.” Police are offering a $20,000 reward for information leading to Secoriea Turner’s killers. Information can be submitted anonymously to the Crime Stoppers Atlanta tip line at 404-577-TIPS (8477) or online at www.StopCrimeATL.com. Hours following the police news conference, the community came together for a prayer vigil.
  • A 17-month-old girl was killed in a pit bull attack last weekend during a Fourth of July party in Illinois, authorities said. According to The Associated Press and WMAQ-TV, the incident occurred early Sunday in the bedroom of a family friend's Joliet home. The toddler, whose parents were attending a holiday gathering at the residence, was in a playpen when two dogs somehow got free from the basement, Joliet police said. After hearing a noise, the homeowner went into the bedroom to find one of the two dogs – both pit bull mixes – biting the child, the AP reported. Authorities responded to the home shortly before 1:30 a.m. and found the girl unresponsive with multiple bite wounds, the Herald-News reported. Crews rushed her to a nearby hospital, where she later died. The Will County Coroner's Office identified the victim as Marley Wilander, according to the newspaper. The dog is now in the custody of Animal Control, police said.  – The Associated Press contributed to this report.
  • Chief Justice John Roberts Jr. was hospitalized briefly after suffering a fall last month at a Maryland country club, a Supreme Court spokesperson confirmed Tuesday night. Roberts, 65, required an overnight stay, The Washington Post reported. Roberts suffered the fall June 21 at the Chevy Chase Club in Maryland and required stitches, the newspaper reported. He was released from an area hospital after staying overnight for observation. “The Chief Justice was treated at a local hospital on June 21 for an injury to his forehead sustained in a fall while walking for exercise near his home,” Kathleen Arberg, public information officer for the Supreme Court, said in a statement. “The injury required sutures, and out of an abundance of caution, he stayed in the hospital overnight and was discharged the next morning. His doctors ruled out a seizure. They believe the fall was likely due to light-headedness caused by dehydration.” Roberts experienced seizures in 1993 and 2007, the Post reported. Roberts has not publicly mentioned the hospitalization.