November temperature roller coaster

Temps 10-20º below-average Thursday into Saturday

Chilly this week into the weekend with the lowest readings of the fall season to date on the weekend as an upper level jet stream trough swings through, patchy frost possible.

Thursday looks nasty ugly uncomfortable.

But then temperatures warm up again above-normal next week as another jet stream ridge builds overhead.

But then they head down again back below-normal mid-month as a +PNA jet stream ridge builds over the Western U.S. allowing yet another upper level jet stream trough to build in toward the SE.

We will have to monitor any SEVERE WEATHER possibility the end of next week.

This progressive pattern will keep temperatures in an up and down pattern vs. the average for this time of year as we roll through November as blocking continues over Canada helping the jet stream to swing up and down back and forth the rest of the month.

TELECONNECTION SUPPORT IS CONSISTENT:

DAYS 11-15 TELECONNECTIONS:

MID NOVEMBER TO EARLY DECEMBER TELECONNECTION AND ANALOGS:


WPO Analogs:

ONLY a couple shots of rain over the course of the next 16 days. The average will be less than normal rainfall for the period so mostly dry into mid-November.

Metro ATLANTA has had notable tornado outbreaks in November and January.

THIS IS AUTUMN SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK IN GEORGIA:

NOVEMBER TORNADO COUNT:

There is a chance of some severe weather somewhere in the Southeast late next week (details TBD) after temps in the 70s briefly return.

Connect with me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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