New week, new weather

After a dry Monday (map above) the chance of rain returns, but nothing like the past two weeks.

This week the rain will not be as heavy nor as persistent. There will be more dry spaces and dry hours in between showers and even days with a mix of showers and sun. Sounds more typical of Spring because it is so.

We may get a day in the mix where there is some CAD cooling but otherwise above-normal temperatures will prevail with 70 not out of the question along the way.

Given the jet stream pattern depicted in the short, medium and long range numerical weather prediction (NWP) variants I’d say the equations signal any “LAST HURRAH” from Old Man Winter as we’ve seen in March and April in the past is off the table this year. Winter, such as it was is over.

Of course we can still get our usual brief cold snap that often happens in March and April even if none is shown in the foreseeable future at the moment. The first “opportunity” for that would be around after the 24th or by the start of April.

But prior to that, beyond this week may lie even warmer temperatures, but with that, a concern for the start of SPRING SEVERE WEATHER SEASON around the 17th give or take a day but odds are greater to our West. Overall, the long look suggests the trend for the Spring and Summer will lean toward above-normal and drier than normal as the pendulum swings.

SURFACE WEATHER MAP TUESDAY:

But notice this week the fronts get close and tend to stall never coming fully through until the weekend, hence the more sporadic nature of the rain and thundershowers:

3-DAY RAINFALL FORECAST ESTIMATED AVERAGE:

EXPERIMENTAL EXTENDED RANGE TORNADO ACTIVITY (NATIONAL) OUTLOOK:

MODEL FORECAST JET STREAM PATTERN 500MB ~18,000FT:

However, it is worth noting that the “big 3” global models all show the EPO going negative starting around the IDES OF MARCH. If IF they are correct we have to watch out for the models to correct toward a cooler outcome as the March/April temperature departure pattern from a -EPO is this: