Weather

New European blend model updated for summer

The “Super-blend” of the ECMWF and UKMET models has done a pretty decent job of forecasting recent summers and winters, so while I won’t follow it blindly in making my own outlook it’s worth a look.

The dryness really shows up in the lower than normal humidity zones out West:

MEGA-BLEND OF 8 DIFFERENT MODELS FOR SUMMER TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL ANOMALIES ON AVERAGE:

While La Nina tilts the scales to warm and dry in the Southeastern U.S. many models suggest that does NOT mean it has to be brutally hot all summer long, but odds favor less than normal rain. That would fit the projection of this being the 4th “triple dip” La Nina summer since 1950.

The years 1954-56, 1998-2000 and 2010-12 are each similar to the 2020-22 ENSO pattern (and also close to the PDO/AMO regime in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans).

For more frequent info from me Follow on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

JUNE TEMP/RAIN ACCORDING TO CONSTRUCTED ANALOG METHOD:

Kirk Mellish

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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