Up down back and forth that pattern since winter continues into May.
The analogs from the NAM model are showing a 30-50% chance of 32º or lower for parts of the next couple mornings, the prior run actually showed a 70% chance of a freeze for much of the area. However, this is NOT supported by ensembles or operational/deterministic models so I don’t think it will happen.
I think some patchy light frost will be possible away from I-285 but that’s about it, with temps the next 2 days averaging 6-12º below-normal for this time of year.
BUT THEN A BIG-TIME WARM-UP as spring bursts forth fully for consecutive days to the greatest extent so far this year.
This will be caused by a large strong ridge of high pressure developing over the East in response to another big upper-level trough and storm system out West.
The rest of this week and the coming weekend looks dry with a warm-up from Thursday onward. Low to mid 80s possible for the weekend into early next week! Temps go from 6-12 lower than average to 5-10º higher than average by next Sunday/Monday.
HOWEVER, AFTER THAT, YET ANOTHER PATTERN FLIP FOR A RETURN TO SOME BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. Rinse and repeat.
That next cool down could also bring some level of frost chance but still NO FREEZE anticipated until next autumn. If that changes I’ll give a heads up if I can.
The extended dry spell also keeps severe weather away the next 7-8 days at least, after that some chance may return.
Negative AO/NAO playing a significant role:
Rainfall totals looks below-average over the next 2 weeks.
May and June rainfall looks average to drier than average. MAY temps look near-normal on average while JUNE looks near-normal to below-normal on average with near to below-normal rain on average.
For more connect with me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
©2022 Cox Media Group