Models winter forecast

Remember, this is not MY forecast it is output from numerical prediction guidance. 

This is what the various long-range computer models are showing for the coming winter.

Most of the models suggest a mild winter with low odds of snow.

They generally are indicating a mean jet stream trough over the West/NW part of the country with a Southeast ridge (to varying degrees).

The only model showing below-normal temperatures is the Japan Met Agency JAMSTECH model.

MOST models show precipitation near-average with a bit of range from below to above.

I discussed in my first thoughts on winter in a blog a month or so ago that this would probably be a difficult winter to try to figure out with the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) in the Pacific being weak and/or near neutral.

The models suggest this as well as most show either a weak "Modoki" (warm central Pacific) El Nino OR a weak La Nina. So clearly the models are having a devil of a time deciding what the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures will be like in the winter.

Since the Pacific Ocean is so vast it inputs a lot of energy into the atmosphere, so when a major climate driver like El Nino/La Nina is near neutral, other, much less predictable factors will be in winters driver seat.

Unfortunately the traditional International model ensemble is not currently available, I’ll share it if and when it becomes available.

JMA JAPAN MODEL TEMPS/PRECIP:

IRI MODEL TEMPS/PRECIP:

CANDIAN MODEL TEMPS:

NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL SUITE TEMPS/PRECIP:

C3S ECMWF MODEL TEMPS/PRECIP:

NCEP TEMPS/PRECIP:

UK MET OFFICE MODEL TEMPS/PRECIP:

INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL TEMPS/PRECIP:

JAMSTECH MODEL (JAPAN) TEMPS/PRECIP:

NOAA/NWS TEMPS/PRECIP:

ECMWF MODEL SNOWFALL ANOMALY FORECAST:

MY first estimate for winter will be out late this Month with the final winter forecast by the start of December.

Remember I use the teleconnection and analog method for long-range forecasting with less weight on models.

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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