The above map is all that can be outlined this far in advance of next weekends weather system. Snow sleet and ice are most likely in the Northeast Georgia mountains. But at this distance those lines will certainly shift South OR North. It’s way too soon to say how much because we don’t know yet what TYPE precipitation will fall. The TIMING is also iffy at this point as it could be anytime next weekend, as of now it looks like both Saturday and Sunday will have precipitation and there could be heavy rain.
I am highly confident there WILL be a storm system, but the temperatures are uncertain not just at the surface but also aloft.
Long-time followers or weather enthusiasts/hobbyists who pay attention to these things already have the background from past blogs to understand how a “Miller A” and “Miller B” system impacts our region along with “CAD Events” (Cold-Air Damming) aka “The Wedge”. They also know no two are ever exactly alike.
They also know that if the models are off by just a tenth to a quarter of a degree that can be the difference between a good forecast and a forecast “bust”. They also know that is a tiny tiny margin of error and NO MAN or MODEL is capable of nailing that, the normal and expected margin of error is LARGER than that given the current state of the art of the science.
The system in question is still over the Pacific Ocean West of California:
NOTE: the last box is true in states like Kansas where the graphic was made where snow is common and they don’t have the complications we have with the mountains, Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean effects, not true here because of those complications.
A “split-flow” jet stream pattern is typical in an El Nino winter and will often keep the Southern tier of the country in an active weather pattern including winter precipitation risks.
500mb (about 18,000 feet) Jet Stream Forecast ECMWF Ensemble Next Saturday Evening :
The system is expected to move into Southern California and move across Northern Mexico and South Texas then track East near the Gulf Coast before turning Northeast up the Atlantic Coast then out to sea Saturday through Monday:
Stay tuned. For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB. This is Winter Weather Preparedness Week in Georgia! Learn to prepare here.