The map above is NOT my outlook but is the NOAA/NWS/CPC outlook for Summer, mine will differ.
My outlook shows not quite a goldilocks pattern, but nothing too extreme for the months ahead on average. No sign of drought yet is good news.
Warm spells will come and go the rest of April into first part of May.
MAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK BASED ON ANALOGS:
MAY RAINFALL BASED ON ANALOGS:
SUMMER JJA TEMPERATURES BASED ON ANALOGS:
SUMMER JJA RAINFALL BASED ON ANALOGS:
ECMWF MODEL SUMMER TEMPS AND RAINFALL:
MULTI U.S. AND CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLE SUMMER TEMPS AND RAINFALL:
INTERNATIONAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SUMMER TEMPS AND RAINFALL:
MULTI INTERNATIONAL MODEL SYSTEM ENSEMBLE SUMMER TEMPS AND RAINFALL:
Note: the usual reminder that these maps cover the average or mean for the entire period shown not for every day or every week.
Where different methods overlap with the same general outlook confidence is higher and where there is divergence confidence in the outcome is lower.
Much like my first “preliminary Spring and Summer outlook” issued at the start of March, it still looks like the greatest consensus for a long hot dry summer is in the center of the country with some extension in the West and Northern regions.
It’s interesting to see the consensus among various schemes for above-normal rainfall along the East Coast and/or Southeast.
Heat waves and droughts have a way of sneaking up on us, but at least for now there is no indication of a brutal summer in the Southeast USA.
My final Summer outlook will be out by early June.
For updates and other weather info follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.