I’ve shown in previous blog posts including the winter outlooks that there is not strong persistence from November to December or for the winter as a whole.

In other words, what November is like does not give you a strong clue as to what December or the rest of winter will be.

This is what makes weather prediction so hard, mother nature has an infinite variety of cards to play and over the long haul it usually ends up close to 50-50.

Meanwhile the sunspot activity is at its lowest level since around 2009.

NOVEMBER TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DEPARTURE FROM NORMALS:

U.S. SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS “Fall-WINTER”:

Using data from the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab for all of North America last month's snow cover extent was the 3rd most since 1966 and the 5th greatest November snow cover for the entire Northern Hemisphere! U.S. snow cover starts near a December record.

Of the TOP 10 SNOWIEST North American Novembers, on a national basis, 5 of those winters were colder than normal and 5 were milder than normal as a national average as shown by WeatherDesk Research, it was also five and five for Georgia:

The composite mean shows a cold signal North of I-40 and a mild signal in the South and West.

THE 5 WARM WINTERS THAT FOLLOWED SNOWY NORTH AMERICAN NOVEMBERS:

THE FIVE THAT WERE COLD FOLLOWING A SNOWY NORTH AMERICAN NOVEMBER:

Looking ahead the next few weeks it looks like warm air will come and go come and go with sharp cold snaps in between and with rainfall the next 10-days near average to below-average, then the following 5 days get a little wetter as the jet stream keeps undergoing big swings:

See the roller coaster thermometer pattern: 

Whenever the jet stream becomes strongly wavy like that shown in the 500mb maps above (highly amplified) the potential for extremes becomes heightened so we will have to keep our eyes open for potential wild swings and potential storms as models do not usually perform well when jet stream anomalies grow.

The weather looks like it will get more interesting as the month of December goes on as we watch another Stratosphere Polar Vortex warming disruption.

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.