Weather

Spring Weather: Looking Ahead

2-day rainfall estimate in map above.

The next 4-6 weeks are pretty straightforward and can be summed up as warmer than normal with frequent frontal passage showers.

“April showers bring May flowers” is the old adage, but this year we started all that 1-2 months ahead of schedule and that trend will continue through April.

As we transition to drier than normal and hotter than normal for the Summer, we will have to watch for a brief spell of significant severe weather along the way, but nothing specific is showing up just yet. If I had to estimate I would say a first opportunity Saturday March 28th give or take a day and again around April 1st. give or take a couple days.

**BEFORE that a low risk of a damaging thunderstorm today or Tuesday.**

Briefly cooler than normal weather may follow any stormy weather to end the month. But before then it's unseasonably warm (warmer than normal even for Spring) starting Tuesday. 

While April is expected to be warmer than normal (on average) there will probably still be a brief cool snap or two. Rainfall is expected to be above-average despite some dry spells.

CFSV2 APRIL:

NOAA/NWS APRIL:

MARCH 29-APRIL 4TH:

MULTI-MODEL AVERAGE ANOMALY WEEKS 3-4:

We may see a heat ridge set up over the Southeast U.S. starting in May, if it does as expected it will verify the expected pendulum swing away from the wet Winter and early Spring  to much drier.

As a side note, preliminary indications from ocean sea surface temperatures indicate an active hurricane season this year, but we have plenty of time to address that further in the months ahead. The season starts in June and runs through November, usually peaking in September.

For more Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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