June weather outlook

The lightning bugs or fireflies are about to show up for the season

A slightly early heat wave does not automatically equate to a long hot summer. It COULD be a hot summer but this alone does not mean that. People often make that false assumption based on linear thinking, but weather is a non-linear system. It is chaotic and unstable, in constant flux, constantly changing.

We’ve had plenty of April or May heat waves followed by a normal summer.

That is why weather forecasts have a short shelf life and must be constantly updated: weather is a moving target, and not moving in a strait line nor steady speed.

Above-average temperatures all this week into the weekend.

As of now the first half of June looks to average out about normal. More on June with maps below.

Two key things to watch for over the next 3 weeks is whether there is a tendency for high pressure ridges to set-up over the Northern and NW Territories of Canada, this would point toward a temperate summer. On the other hand, if Great Smokies ridges and/or Sonoran ridges flex repeatedly between now and the Summer Solstice that would signal odds favoring a long brutal hot summer. I’ll keep you posted.

My Summer Outlook will be issued in early June. Stay tuned.

We hit 90F officially Sunday:

It has been over 250 days since our last official 90F day in Atlanta, over 8 months ago. The average date of the first 90 degree day is June 1, so we are only 9 days ahead of the long term “schedule” or average.

Like last year we have actually had a SPRING to enjoy instead of jumping from winter right into mid summer heat in March or April like so many times in the past.

LAST YEAR OUR FIRST 90 waited until June 20th, weeks later than normal.

**We now have in the U.S. the LONGEST STREAK WITHOUT A CONFIRMED EF5 TORNADO since modern record keeping began in 1950. (Counting goes back to before 1870). The old record was May 3 1999 to May 4 2007.

Until now MAY has been wet and cool in most of Georgia:

INTERNATIONAL MODELS ENSEMBLE JUNE:

US AND CANADIAN MODELS ENSEMBLE FOR JUNE:

NWS/NOAA JUNE OUTLOOK:

ANALOG METHOD JUNE OUTLOOK:

So most of the data suggests for Metro Atlanta a June where temperatures average out near-normal to a little warmer than normal.

On the question of June rainfall the data is split between dry and slightly wet. I do not think rainfall will average out too far off normal in either direction.

PROTECT AGAINST SUNBURN AND SKIN CANCER, WE ARE IN THAT TIME PERIOD:

RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK:

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB and LISTEN to 95.5 WSB Radio which is where I work as a meteorologist.

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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