Weather

Jet stream change to bring temperature drop

A jet stream pattern change will be whisking away the mild weather and ushering in the coldest temperatures of the season as a mild ridge is replaced a cool dip or trough in the jet stream bringing in a new air mass from Canada starting this weekend but increasing next week.

JET STREAM (500MB LEVEL) NOVEMBER 11-15TH:

I have been a little skeptical that temperatures will be quite as extreme as being depicted by the European Model which IF correct shows the freeze line dropping way South next Wednesday but the evidence is mounting this is real:

But if the ECMWF is right there will be some record low temperatures set in parts of the Southeast next week, before then frost is possible this weekend then a freeze next week in parts of Georgia even a hard freeze possible.

16-DAY GFS ENSEMBLE ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES:

GFS AND ECWMF 16-DAY ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE:

But the November cold blast is not expected to last the rest of the month, as yet another jet stream pattern shift is expected by the end of the month to return a milder ridge pattern, probably extending into the start of December:

Given the wild swings in jet stream pattern we will have to monitor the potential for a big storm system of some time to blow up somewhere in the South or East, although none is shown as of this writing that could change.

FRIDAY SURFACE WEATHER CHART:

WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 22ND:

WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 25TH:

WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 29TH:

WEEK ENDING DECEMBER 6TH:

6 WEEK TEMPERATURE AVERAGE ANOMALY:

4-WEEK AVERAGE RAINFALL ANOMALY:

4-WEEK AVERAGE SNOWFALL:

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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