Isaias still problematic in many ways

And I don't just mean pronouncing it.

The pronunciation in Spanish is of course different.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH now includes Southeast Georgia.

The storm is weak and disorganized this morning thanks to dry air and wind shear both working against it. Might not even be hurricane status.

As per my previous blog post on Isaias days ago, many options are still on the table, with the exception as I said on Twitter the other day, it will stay out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Currently the center of the low pressure is expected to run up along the East Coast of Florida by some 40-60 miles impacting Florida. A landfall on Florida before going back into the Atlantic is not out of the question but not yet predicted.

It is NOT likely to become a major hurricane but that can not be ruled out. (Remember, while forecast tracks are reliable intensity forecasting remains poor).

Either way, RAIN and flooding more than wind looks to be the focus of the primary hazard as it runs up the Atlantic Coast over the next 5 days or so.

Regardless of a hit of the center on Florida or not a landfall of the center is probable as at least a CAT 1 Hurricane somewhere around Cape Fear-Wilmington NC by Tuesday morning. A second or third landfall of the center of the storm will be possible later in the week near Long Island, NY and Cape Cod, MA.

Little wobbles of the storms path keep open the question of whether-or-not tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds can make it inland and how far or if strongest winds remain just offshore. The storm could strengthen or fall apart some before regaining some strength later. As I said many options are still on the table for this tricky system.

The big KEY to the storms future intensity is the big IF of whether the core of the storm stays over the warm ocean water and stays East enough to reorganized and strengthen with help from favorable jet stream jet streak dynamics (right rear quadrant favors enhanced upward vertical motion) and the heat content of the Gulf Stream both shown in charts below.

IF SO, it will be more concerning for the Coastal Carolinas as well as up the rest of the East Coast. Conversely of course, if it goes more into Florida and falls apart it may just be a wet mess.

For more Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish


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