A few more days of near record heat but then it begins to back down A LITTLE after mid-week. However, temperatures WILL continue to be warmer than average for another couple weeks, just less extreme.
Six consecutive days of 90 or higher and more to come. Also, most of the area has not had rain in 16 days and counting.
Only the lucky will get any shower or thunderstorm the next 7 days as the humidity levels remain modest.
Most of us stay dry and irrigation of lawns, gardens, and farms will be needed as drought expands.
The chance of a shower or thunderstorm will increase after June 3rd or so, BUT still with odds lower than normal for this time of year.
It looks like we will have to wait until AFTER June 5/6 or so before we can get back to a more normal chance of those pop-up afternoon and evening thunderstorms Atlanta is famous for in the Summer as the humidity rises.
This means we are going to have a long relentlessly hot brutal summer of extreme heat right?
NOPE. It does not have to mean that as we have had early heat waves in the past and the summer has gone on to be fairly normal or just a little above average.
It does NOT look like a cool summer by any means, but for now it looks like we will go back and forth between normal heat and above-normal heat. So there will be more heat waves and dry spells to come during the rest of summer, but doesn’t look non-stop at least not yet.
So yes a warmer than normal summer IS expected with rainfall near-normal to a little below-normal.
IF however, we stay drier than normal for another few weeks or more, that would tip the scales for us have an above average number of mid 90 to 100 degree days!
NOTICE how the the jet stream pattern changes between Memorial Day and the start of June as the flow pattern “flattens out” and the high pressure height levels of the extreme upper-level heat ridge over the Southeast breaks down:
500 MB Jet Stream ECMWF MODEL:
CAS MODEL SUMMER OUTLOOK:
The ENSO state continues to be in the very weak El Nino to neutral zone and forecast to remain so through summer:
This suggests minimal impact on the coming hurricane season so I would expect the number of tropical cyclones to be around average on a par with last season but I think odds of a little above normal number of storms is greater than the odds of a below average number of systems, but data next month should help clarify the outlook.
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Have a nice day and thanks for listening to my reports on AM750 and 955FM WSB Radio, reading my blog and checking my online 5-day forecast at wsbradio.com