A gathering storm system out West will gain strength and head East in the days ahead, just bringing us an increase in clouds today but we stay dry through the daylight hours Thursday and unseasonably warm. (Seasonably warm would be a high of 73).

The system is expected to be so strong and tightly wound that jet stream speeds approach record levels by Friday in parts of the Eastern U.S. and parts of the Smoky Mountains and adjacent areas could get accumulating snow by Saturday thanks to the “bowling ball” low pressure aloft:

SEVERE WEATHER as of now looks to be worse West and Northeast of Georgia, but HEAVY RAIN and some severe weather is possible here in the Metro Atlanta area as well, with a few damaging thunderstorm wind gusts. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out as the squall line (QLCS) that forms to our West moves across Georgia roughly between midnight and 11am Friday (late Thursday night-Friday morning).

As is often the case that kind of timing, if correct, lowers the extent of severe weather by arriving at a time of day when the atmosphere is a little more stable compared to when a front arrives in late afternoon or early evening when daytime heating makes an air mass more unstable. Also strong storms to our South can sap some energy from storms further North.

None-the-less the details of the severe weather threat are yet to be determined and the forecast may be adjusted when we get closer to the “event”.

MODEL SIMULATED SURFACE PRESSURE AND RADAR END OF DAY THURSDAY:

MODEL SIMULATED SURFACE PRESSURE AND RADAR FRIDAY MORNING:

SEVERE WEATHER RISK THURSDAY-FRIDAY:

ESTIMATED RAINFALL BETWEEN NOW AND END OF FRIDAY:



MODEL SIMULATED SURFACE PRESSURE AND RADAR SATURDAY:

ECMWF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL SATURDAY:

Some operational model indicators point to isolated totals at higher elevations of a half foot TN/NC.

ECMWF MODEL SURFACE WEATHER SATURDAY:

Temperatures plunge behind this system but only briefly as we go from around 10 degrees above normal today and Thursday to about 13 degrees below normal Saturday.

Easter Sunrise services dry but chilly, however it warms up nicely Easter afternoon with a high in the low to mid 70s with sunshine.

It’s worth pointing out that the European model is much colder than my forecast for both Saturday and Sunday showing highs Saturday only in the 50s and only 60s Sunday and Monday. Something I will monitor in case other models trend in that direction.

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