Fred to move into the Southeast states

Dangerous wind, rain and storm surge for Florida Pan Handle

No big change to the Fred impact forecast for our area from what we’ve been thinking since last week.

The center of Fred is expected to strike land near Panama City, FL late today or early this evening but tropical storm conditions will start this morning with a hurricane force wind gust possible down there. Looks like a strong tropical storm-borderline weak hurricane by landfall.

For Metro Atlanta it won’t rain all the time the next 3 days but over that period everyone will get some rain and at times heavy it will take luck for somebody to just get lighter showers.

An average of 2-4 inches appears a good bet. The NWS has issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for all of Metro Atlanta for late tonight into Wednesday morning.

Where “training of cells” or steady convergence zones set up with feeder bands (spokes or tentacles) rain totals of 4-8 inches will be possible in some spots somewhere in AL/TN/GA/SC/NC with an isolated 10″ total somewhere in NW FL/Far South AL and the mountains of the Carolinas not being any surprise.

Widespread strong winds are NOT currently expected for Metro Atlanta. However, that does NOT mean no strong winds.

There will be plenty of time when the wind is entirely UNREMARKABLE the next few days, but individual thunderstorms and feeder band squalls will be capable of wind gusts of 40-60 mph (but such winds will not happen everywhere). In addition, it is well established that small, brief “spin-up” tornadoes sometimes in the Eastern sector or the low pressure system, typically EF-0/EF-2 level.

Widespread tornadoes are not expected just be aware with or without a tornado warning or even without a thunderstorm warning it could happen. Also be aware that it is not unusual with a tropical system to have torrential downpours and gusty winds even with little or no lightning and thunder!

Remember what I said in the first blog on Fred, we’re good at track forecasts LOUSY at intensity forecasts! So things could change in important ways.

Once the soils become SOGGY, it will not take strong winds for some trees to topple just from loose soils in the root zone, so some power outages will occur in some spots in Georgia and/or adjacent states.

At least as of now, TUESDAY looks to be the day and night of maximum impact with lesser effects Monday and Wednesday, then much better Thursday/Friday, but the chance of a shower or thunderstorm will still be normal to a little above normal those days as well. Stay tuned for updates and any changes.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH:

ESTIMATED RAINFALL:

HRRR MODEL SIMULATED RADAR 3PM MONDAY:

MODEL SIMULATED RADAR MIDNIGHT:

MODEL SIMULATED RADAR 7AM TUESDAY:

MODEL SIMULATED RADAR 1PM TUESDAY:

MODEL SIMULATED RADAR 6PM TUESDAY:

MODEL AVERAGE WINDS (not gusts) 2PM TUESDAY:

MODEL FORECAST WIND GUSTS THROUGH 2PM TUESDAY:

NWS HARTSFIELD HOURLY WIND FORECAST PROFILE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:

TROPICS ACTIVE, 8 expected to become Henri tonight:

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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