Flash Flood Watch continues for the entire area through tonight

Severe weather risk again this afternoon and tonight

Coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase as the day goes on. There could be two main rounds one afternoon and another tonight.

At least as I write this it looks like the worst will be in MS/AL, but that could change so stay tuned for updates on 95.5 WSB throughout the day and evening and read on for more.

I’ve explained on these pages dozens of times in the past and on the radio how thunderstorm forecasting is different than other forecasts as they often must be updated every couple hours or so.

Here is the early morning set-up:

Notice below how the early expectation is for a concentration of rain and storms to the West and South of Metro Atlanta after the activity to our North fades. Often when that happens it can “rob” our area of some moisture instability and energy for widespread severe weather, keeping the worst of it in MS/AL (but no guarantees).

What might cause that not to work out this time is the outflow boundary from the overnight storms in Tennessee may move in here from the NW to SE with storms ahead of the approaching second area ahead of the front coming in from the West tonight:

36-HOUR FORECAST RAINFALL ESTIMATE:

SPC OFFICIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK NOW-4PM:

4pm-8pm:

CONCENTRATED STORM AREAS APPROXIMATELY 1PM:

APPROXIMATELY 3PM:

CONCENTRATED STORM AREAS APPROXIMATELY 5PM:

The numerical models do not have much agreement on the timing of the strongest storms, so be weather aware throughout the afternoon and tonight and check for updates on 95.5 WSB Radio across all platforms:

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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