First significant cold snap on the way

First widespread hard freeze is weeks later than normal

Keep in mind this is NOT a forecast for some record smashing cold wave, nothing historic or remarkable is being predicted in our area. It’s just a drastic change from our long dry and mostly warmer than average spell of weather. Just a noticeable sharp contrast.

A freeze is expected all the way down to the Gulf Coast and into the North Florida peninsula.

On Twitter I’ve been discussing the coming big weather pattern change since November 23rd.

The jet stream is “buckling” and a hybrid “Miller A/B” storm system will lead the way, first with rain late Sunday then with cold strong gusty North/Northwest winds Monday/Tuesday.

Some snow flurries may fly in the air in parts of North Georgia Monday night, but the real story is the big thermometer drop that is coming.

The mountains of East Tennessee and North Carolina have the best chance at accumulating snow, especially the NW facing slopes.

The main winter storm will be in the Ohio River Valley.

At any rate, most of the models agree on the pattern change. Not just specific output for our region but they largely agree on other signals at distance such as over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans: the MJO, the EPO, the PNA, the NAO even the AO. This is what boosts the confidence that this temperature change will be no head fake.

The big question is whether-or-not this is a temporary swing in the weather jet stream pendulum or the start of something that will last for weeks or months. Right now the model jury is split on that question. More on that in the days ahead.

For now there is consensus that on average, temperatures will be below-normal through roughly the first half of December.

Notice how the jet stream configuration changes, the jet stream helps create and move air masses of different moisture content and temperature. See how we go from a flow from the West Southwest on Friday Nov 27th to a NW to N flow by Tuesday:

FORECAST SURFACE CHART FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NOV 29TH:

FORECAST SURFACE WEATHER CHART SUNDAY NIGHT NOV 29TH:

ESTIMATED RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AM:

SURFACE WEATHER CHARTS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

Monday November 30th 6pm:

MULTI-MODEL BLEND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE:

Another similar system is possible the end of next week, as of now does not look like any big deal.

Details on that one after we get through the first one. Watch this space.

For daily updates Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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