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Dorian a threat from Florida to Virginia/Maryland
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Dorian a threat from Florida to Virginia/Maryland

Dorian a threat from Florida to Virginia/Maryland

Dorian a threat from Florida to Virginia/Maryland

DORIAN STILL MOVING PARALLEL TO NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED ALONG NORTH CAROLINA COAST

Rainbands from Dorian continue to move onshore in parts of the North half of Florida and Georgia edging to South Carolina despite the eye of the storm being well out to sea. This is why we advise you not focus so much on the single point forecast track line. Size matters and serious impacts can and do occur even outside the “cone of uncertainty”. 

The winds may be down near the eye but the size of the storm is growing putting more areas at risk farther North.

WIND FIELD 1115 AM Maximum 110 mph (estimated):

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Hurricane gusts are not out of the question even inland in the Carolinas even if the eye does not come onto land, although an eye landfall is becoming more likely somewhere in South or North Carolina as per previous blog posts. 

Heavy weather ahead for North Florida, SE Georgia and SC/NC with a close call for a landfall or brush with the mainland at the very least late Wednesday or Thursday, mainly Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras as a Cat 1 or 2.

Regardless of exact tract as it wobbles N/NW the rainbands will continue to directly impact the Florida Coast, some strong this will be spreading to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts today and especially Wednesday night and early Thursday.

In addition to heavy rain the risk of isolated tornadoes will grow in the days ahead especially for the Carolinas. 

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The mid-level jet stream weakness between the two upper-level high pressure ridges I’ve talked about for a week is opening a lane for Dorian toward SC/NC with close proximity to Georgia.

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Models continue to take baby steps slower and closer to the Coast as it gets farther North over time. The impact specifics will vary up to the last minute based on future forecast changes. 

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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK TODAY/TOMORROW:

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SCIENTIFIC DISCUSSION NHC:

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Notice how the spaghetti spread has narrowed because it’s logically easier to predict where something is going when it’s moving than when it’s not, that’s why the uncertainty in past days was much greater than normal: (StormVista)

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Meanwhile Dorian is not alone, here’s the 5-day Tropical Outlook:

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If you have personal interests in coastal surge and waves use this tool to click and zoom on your point of concern. This tool is used by the Dept. of Homeland Security and in the White House Situation room.

For more frequent updates follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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News

  • Thin Mints and Samoas are two of the flavors buyers of Girl Scout cookies find irresistible. However, police officials in Oregon said one consumer went a little too far to satisfy his cravings. Police said Camden Ducharme, 36, of Salem, is accused of buying cookies from a Girl Scout booth outside a Walmart using counterfeit money, The Oregonian reported. Ducharme was charged with theft and forgery for passing along counterfeit U.S. currency, according to the Salem Police Department. He was later released from the Marion County Correctional Facility, the Statesman Journal of Salem reported. Tiffany Brown said earlier this month, a man visited the booth she was running with her two daughters, the newspaper reported. Brown said the man asked a lot of questions and seemed “fidgety.' The man paid for a $5 box of Tagalongs with a $20 bill and received $15 in change, the Oregonian reported. Brown’s 13-year-old daughter, Ava, thought the bill looked odd, KPTV reported. “The bill didn’t look right, it was smaller, bluish tint and it just wasn’t the same as the rest of the bills,” Brown told the television station. Brown shared a photograph of the bill next to a legitimate one on Facebook, noting, “The troop takes the loss.” Salem police spokeswoman Lt. Debbie Aguilar said officers were able to use video surveillance to identify Ducharme, the Statesman Journal reported. When Ducharme returned Sunday to Walmart, store loss prevention officers contacted police and he was taken into custody. Police said they responded to one other incident in which Ducharme used counterfeit money to buy Girl Scout cookies., the Oregonian reported. “It’s not nice, it is not kind to other people and it is not fair,” Ava Brown told KPTV. “Us Girl Scouts work really hard and I am proud to say I am a Girl Scout.”
  • Airline travel is stressful enough when flying solo. It’s even tougher for families, who sometimes have to split up in order to get the cheapest airfares. According to the advocacy arm of Consumer Reports, charging fees to keep families together is unacceptable. The nonprofit organization posted an online petition, “demanding airlines put safety over profits.” “Children 13 or under should sit with their families while flying, and should not be charged extra fees to do so,” according to the petition, which has a goal of 75,000 signatures and was approaching 60,000 early Tuesday. According to a Consumer Reports review of more than 130 complaints submitted to the U.S. Department of Transportation, airlines have separated or suggested separating children as young as 2 years old from their parents, USA Today reported. “Children need a responsible adult around and whether it’s just so they can go to the bathroom in the middle of the flight or if there’s an emergency, it’s not safe to have a child without somebody there to take care of them,” Anna Laitin, director of financial policy for Consumer Reports’ advocacy arm, told CNN. “And no business traveler or solo traveler wants to be put in charge of a 3-year-old they don’t know, and no parent wants to be seated, strapped in unable to move, that far from their child.' According to the petition, splitting up families “is a security hazard for the child and a safety threat to all passengers during emergencies.” The petition further claimed that separation “puts an inappropriate burden on customers who sit next to an unaccompanied child.” The petition specifically singles out American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines. In 2016, Congress passed a bill that called upon airlines to seat children 13 and younger next to a family member at no extra cost, CNN reported. However, the bill left some room for the airlines to bypass the law, calling for a policy “if appropriate.” Consumer Reports created a site last fall where consumers can lodge complaints at the same time with the organization and the Department of Transportation, USA Today reported. The organization said it has collected more than 400 complaints since the site went online, the newspaper reported. Representatives for American, United and Delta, the initial targets of the petition because they received the most complaints, said they have taken steps to ensure families booked together, sit together. American Airlines spokesman Ross Feinstein told USA Today the airline has spent a 'considerable amount of time'' on the issue and has developed a system of seating children younger than 15 with an adult family member. In a statement, Delta spokeswoman Maria Moraitakis said, “Regardless of the type of ticket purchased, Delta works with customers on a case-by-case basis to ensure their travel needs are met. When customers have seating questions, we encourage them to reach out to us as soon as possible to allow for the opportunity to address their concerns.” United Airlines spokesman Charlie Hobart told CNN the airline has adjusted its family seating procedures and policies. “We’ve essentially rolled out automatically seating families together. So we automatically scan for families who do not have seats assigned next to each other and we work to seat them together,” Hobart told CNN.
  • With the coronavirus impacting countries around the world, the word pandemic has been used more and more often. But what is a pandemic and how does that differ from an outbreak? Outbreaks vs pandemic Outbreaks turn into pandemics when an illness becomes global, the World Health Organization said. There are actually four levels to qualify how severe and widespread an illness is, Health.com reported. They are, according to Health.com: Sporadic, or infrequently occurring disease. Endemic or usual prevalence of an illness. Epidemic or sudden increase of an illness or higher numbers of sick patients than expected. Pandemic or an epidemic that has spread to other countries. The WHO will declare the illness as a pandemic using various models. But there is no one number that changes an epidemic or outbreak into a pandemic, The Guardian reported. Why does it spread so far? Most people don’t have immunity when an outbreak spreads worldwide. They also have different epidemiological patterns. For example, while the normal flu hits during the winter months, the H1N1 pandemic happened in the summer, the WHO said. How fast can a pandemic spread? A virus can travel from a remote village to cities on all continents in 36 hours, The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said. How can you stop a pandemic? CDC global health security experts work with other countries to help stop the spread by detecting and reporting cases, identifying the cause of illnesses, containing outbreaks and coordinating a response.
  • A Florida man is accused of hitting and killing his girlfriend while driving a vehicle outside a Polk County bar, then returning to the establishment, authorities said. Charles Robert Polen, 40, of Fort Meade, was charged with DUI manslaughter, leaving the scene of an accident involving death and driving without a license, according to the Polk County Sheriff’s Office. He remains in jail in lieu of $15,000 bail, according to arrest records. Deborah Jo Hershberger, 40, of Fort Meade, was found dead in a road near the Coop, a bar in eastern Polk County, the Tampa Bay Times reported. According to an arrest report, Polen and Hershberger were drinking at the bar Saturday. They had driven there in Hershberger’s 2002 blue Dodge Neon, the newspaper reported. Police said Polen got into an argument with another man, then quarreled with Hershberger when she asked for the keys to the Neon, the Times reported. Hershberger left on foot, and Polen stayed in the bar to finish his beer, the newspaper reported. Then, Polen got into the Neon and began driving to look for her. Polen told deputies that while driving, he hit something, WTSP reported. Polen said he thought he had hit an animal, but then saw a person lying in the road. A woman called 911, and Polen told deputies drove back to the bar and waited for law enforcement, WFTS reported. After authorities arrived, Polen walked from the bar to the scene. the Times reported. Deputies said Polen was upset and had to be restrained once he realized it was Hershberger’s body on the road, the newspaper reported. Deputies believed Polen was intoxicated; seven hours after the incident, his blood alcohol content was .046, which is below Florida’s legal limit of .08, according to the Sheriff’s Office.
  • Body camera footage shows a Florida girl pleading for help as she is put in handcuffs and taken away from school. WFTV first reported on the story back in September. Orlando police said then that the bodycam footage would not be released. But the family’s attorney has it now, and has shared it. Orlando police were called to the school after Kaia reportedly kicked a staff member during a tantrum at Lucious and Emma Nixon Academy. Charges against her were later dropped. The video shows 6-year-old Kaia, confused and crying for help as she’s led away with her hands zip-tied behind her back with makeshift handcuffs from school grounds. See the arrest and aftermath below: Kaia bawls as one of the officers, Officer Dennis Turner, asks the other officer to zip-tie her and take her to Orange County’s Juvenile Detention Center. As one of the officers tightens the makeshift children’s handcuffs, she cries out “No! No! Don’t put handcuffs on (me). Help me! Help me!” Turner’s bodycam footage shows him follow the other officer as he leads Kaia to the back of the patrol car. Then, since she is unable to step up and into the SUV on her own, he lifts her up. “Please! Please! Please let me go!” Kaia screams in the bodycam footage. “No! Help me! Help me!” One school official asks in the video if the restraints were necessary. “Yes, and if she was bigger, she’d be wearing regular handcuffs,” Turner replies in the video. Turner then tells school officials he’s arrested 6,000 people in his career and the youngest, before Kaia, was 7 years old. “She broke the record,” he says. Turner then arrested another 6-year-old at the same school. He was fired for both arrests for violating department policy requiring a supervisor’s approval to arrest anyone under 12. Kaia’s grandmother is now pushing to change state law concerning arrests of children for misdemeanors.
  • A man who was running for the Arizona 1st Congressional District on the Republican ticket had to suspend his candidacy after he overdosed last week. “Today, I have suspended my campaign for the US House of Representatives and am seeking treatment for substance abuse disorder,” Chris Taylor told NBC News in a statement. “I will fully cooperate with local authorities on any matters arising from my recent relapse and overdose.” A family member found Taylor unresponsive at home Wednesday night, the Gila Herald reported. He was revived with Narcan. The Army veteran who served two combat tours in Afghanistan said he’s had an opioid addiction since high school, The Arizona Republic reported. The newspaper reported Taylor overdosed on heroin. “I’m not going to hide from this. I’m not ashamed of what happened. I wish to sincerely apologize to the amazing people who have supported me. I don’t know what went wrong. I recently relapsed after having so many solid years in sobriety. I have to figure out where I went wrong,” Taylor told the Republic. Taylor is currently a member of Safford, Arizona’s city council and founder of Desert Eagle Addiction Recovery, a nonprofit that helps veterans and others dealing with drug addiction. He has been open about his past drug abuse. During his announcement for his run for congress, Taylor said, “The experiences that I’ve had with opiate addiction and being able to overcome that and inspire and help others to find that recovery as well are a source of strength,” the Herald reported. Taylor was among three Republican candidates vying for a spot on the November ballot to unseat Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran, NBC News reported.