A HURRICANE WATCH AND A STORM SURGE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE GEORGIA COAST. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE GEORGIA COAST.
Maximum winds near eye go down some but size of storm gets bigger as it spreads out.
For Florida and GA/SC a near shore but offshore path is still expected for the EYE of Dorian as it begins a slow motion North just East of the Florida coast. As of now the eye of the storm is expected to get no closer than 70-90 miles to the Florida shoreline.
Even if the main “disk” stays off land the circulation will send squalls on-shore in Florida with heavy downpours and wind gusts to hurricane force at times in the outer spiral rain bands and storm surge flooding.
It’s expected to still be a MAJOR Hurricane off the Georgia coast by Wednesday BUT Georgia will be on the weak left side of the storm but still get heavy rain and 50 mph winds. No impact for Atlanta except some added heat from compression heating due to sinking downward air motions off the hurricane.
WATER and NOT wind are the number one threats especially storm surge flooding at the coasts from North Carolina to South Florida.
As far as landfall, IF ANY, we’re probably talking the eye just brushing parts of the NC coast around Cape Lookout and/or Hatteras Thursday as a Cat 2, but we FIRST need to see Dorian start a stable and steady forward motion before we know, that should begin later today.
The European model shows winds COULD end up stronger in the Carolinas to Cape Cod than in Florida later this week.
The reason the hurricane stalled is due to a break-down of steering currents with a stand-off between competing influences on the storms motion as seen below, it’s in an atmospheric no mans land of doldrums:
It is starting to be nudged N/NW, then it can get influenced by stronger flow later in the week and accelerate North and then Northeast eventually.
Not much change in forecast since Saturday...
NHC SCIENTIFIC DISCUSSION:
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