Dorian expected to grow in size and strength

Dorian projected to a Category 3 today and then a category 4 before nearing Florida, no reason it can’t reach CAT 5.

Does NOT mean it has to be a Cat 3-5 when/if it hits land. It is normal for the intensity to cycle up and down at unpredictable times.

The models (at least for now) have come into remarkable agreement on the track path until it reaches Florida late Monday or Tuesday somewhere around West Palm Beach or a little North or South. They then diverge after landfall as you can see above below:

It remains to be seen whether this agreement will last in the days ahead or if it’s just a a temporary consensus. But for the moment the agreement between the major Global models (ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/UKMET) is remarkable for the 3-4 day projection anyway.

However, the variance at just 48 hours in the Euro Ensemble for example is 500 miles, casting doubt on the current consensus.

Despite track agreement until it reaches Florida there is still considerable variation in the timing thanks to significant forward speed differences among models.

The screaming message as in the past couple days is still (A) intensification to strong CATEGORY 4 level prior to landfall (B) slow down for prolonged impact on Florida and/or far Southeast Georgia and South Carolina.

Keep in mind COASTAL EFFECTS begin long before the eye of the storm arrives both for the Florida and Georgia coastlines.

A reminder to please don’t focus too much on the center point track line. That only pertains to the center of the storm, it does not show the size of the storm and major impacts occur far away from that line in all directions.

PLUS, that "CONE of uncertainty" is not specific to Dorian. It represents the average track error over the past 5 years so that over the long-term any given storm would be expected to track somewhere within the cone a third of the time or about 67%. Put another way the cone does NOT represent the level of uncertainty or certainty for any given storm specifically. The size of the cone is fixed.

Therefore the cone can either understate or overstate actual forecast confidence, which is why listening (or reading) to meteorologists give details is key.

Performance thus far on Dorian however has been poor at 38%.

At least if their instruments fail they will stop and ask for directions to the eye of the storm unlike most men ;)

HWRF MODEL DEPICTION 8AM MONDAY (other models vary on time/location):

Miami through Vero Beach/Stuart very much still in play, models will likely change again in the days ahead.

The remaining uncertainty has to do with the steering currents and interaction with Dorian between a wave of low pressure over Cuba and the Bermuda High Pressure Ridge over the Central Atlantic.