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Decade of mild winters, quiet sun
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Decade of mild winters, quiet sun

Decade of mild winters, quiet sun

Decade of mild winters, quiet sun

The solar cycle is at or near a minimum, part of a downward trend cycle that has been coming on for many years now. Given the hot late summer and recent mild winters it’s a good thing I guess the sun has not been at a maximum of sunspots. 

But like many things in weather there is always a lag of impacts and many factors decide what the weather and climate will be not just one single thing. Most of us studied “The Earth-Ocean-Atmosphere System” as early as middle school and no later than High School hopefully. It is indeed a SYSTEM. One with many mysteries. 

Like most things in weather there is not a 1:1 relationship, the atmosphere is nonlinear. That’s why predictions are so hard. 

As seen in the image above the sun just had a single very weak spot. Spaceweather reports that so far in 2019 72% of the days have been free of sunspots pushing 200 days:

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The August-September data charts from Commodity Wx Group and NOAA indicate the numbers are trending toward one of the prior deepest minimums of our lifetimes 2008.

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Model predictions of the future are at variance with some pointing to a continued down trend in sunspots for at least a few more years if not the entire next cycle, others show an uptick although with weakness continuing in the next cycle 25 with a peak around 2024/25.

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I was curious about how other low solar summers in the 2000s have tracked temperature-wise:

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And the recent low solar winters have averaged like this:

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The whole year all seasons average of those recent low solar years:

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Next solar cycle estimate. 

Sunspot story from 2018 on new model research.

Dr. Shepherd PH.D University of Georgia. 

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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News

  • Portland police already realize the irony. A bike was stolen Thursday from Officer Dave Sanders who has worked for years with the Portland Police Bike Theft Task Force to prevent such crimes, KPTV reported. “Well, this oughta be good for some comments at least... ‘Please help Bike Theft Task Force Officer Sanders find his stolen bike,’” the department posted on social media. “Going out on a limb here, but this may support the argument that we still have a slight bike theft problem in the city.” Sanders was running late for a grand jury and locked his blue Marin Nail Trail bike with a pair of handcuffs to a rack out front of the Multnomah County Courthouse, KPTV reported. When he returned about 90 minutes later, the cuffs were hanging on the rack and the bike was gone. The bike, which had a “Police” logo velcroed on it, is registered with serial No. 091712249. The theft was caught on camera. “You can see him walk by and check out the bike. Then he gets to the end of the block and pauses, like, ‘Hey, I think I’ll do it!’ Then he turns around and goes for it. It’s just bizarre,” Sanders told Bike Portland. “These thieves have become so brazen.” About 27 bikes a day are stolen in Portland, with only about 10% recovered. The chances increase if it’s registered. Sanders recommends using a U-lock and securing the frame of the bike to a rack. “It’s discouraging that we’ve reached this level that somebody feels so empowered that they can get away with it that they’ll try something like this. That’s discouraging that our bike theft problem is that bad,' Sanders told KPTV. “But it also motivates me. It’s kind of a motivator to say, ‘Hey, let’s do more, let’s see what we can do better to prevent this from happening.’”
  • A Boston bartender might have gotten his biggest tip yet — for performing a lifesaving technique on a man choking. While behind the bar at Silvertone Bar & Grill on Bromfield Street, Oscar Simoza saw a customer suddenly start to choke Thursday night. “At one point, he’s grabbing his friend’s shoulder, and he has, like, a face like he’s laughing, and then I realize his face turns red,” Simoza told WFXT. Simoza ran out from behind the bar to the stool where the man was sitting, surveillance video of the incident shows. He immediately began performing the Heimlich maneuver to dislodge the blockage from the man’s throat. “Yeah, I moved,” Simoza told WFXT. “I was surprised. I haven’t played rugby in a while, so it’s pretty funny I can actually run this way still. We got there fast enough.” Simoza was able to dislodge a steak tip the man was choking on. “I was like: ‘I’m doing the Heimlich. I’ve never done this before,’” Simoza said. The man was OK, and customers gave Simoza a big round of applause. “(The choking patron) probably gave me the best tip,' Simoza told WFXT. “Like I say, the best tip ever given to me, ‘Thank you for saving my life.'” When asked how he learned the Heimlich, Simoza replied:, “I learned it from watching ’Baywatch.'”
  • The father of the Florida man accused of killing his wife, three children and family dog, also had a history of violence, according to court records dating back 40 years. Robert Todt was convicted by a jury in 1980 for a murder-to-hire plot. It bears an eerie parallel to this week, when his son, Anthony Todt, told Osceola County detectives that he killed his wife, three children and family dog at their Celebration home, WFTV reported. Alan Rubenstein is now a judge in the same Pennsylvania community where he was an assistant district attorney in 1980, and prosecuted Robert Todt’s case. He said the Todts appeared to have a picturesque life. Neighbors had great things to say about Robert Todt, who was a special education teacher and wrestling coach at a Pennsylvania high school. Then, he was arrested for hiring one of his students to kill his wife, Loretta Todt, on March 19, 1980, at their Bensalem home, People reported. The student, John Chairmonte, pleaded guilty to his involvement, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported in 1980. At the time, Chairmonte was characterized as a “burglar and a drug addict,” the newspaper reported in a Dec. 13, 1980, Inquirer story. “Who do you expect Bob Todt to hire to kill his wife, Donny Osmond?' Rubenstein told the newspaper. “A shot was fired right into her skull,” Rubenstein told WFTV on Friday. “It landed through her left eye and blinded her. She should’ve died, but, amazingly, she survived.” What originally seemed like a home invasion didn’t add up, Rubenstein said. “Then we did some background checking on (Robert) Todt,” Rubenstein told WFTV. “We found out about his being engaged to this woman while he was married, about his various girlfriends, the fact that he was having a relationship with one of his students.” When Robert Todt was convicted in 1981, “everybody was wailing, especially his family members and Loretta,” Rubenstein recalled. “The calmest person in the courtroom was Robert Todt.” Robert Todt served about 10 years in prison. Investigators said Anthony Todt was in the home when his mother was shot. A local newspaper reported he woke up to his mother’s screams. Many have described Anthony Todt as a loving father and husband, devoted physical therapist and soccer coach to neighborhood kids. Investigators said they found Anthony Todt’s family’s bodies Monday, but believe Todt killed them weeks earlier. The FBI is also investigating Todt for Medicaid fraud, and records show he was being evicted from their Celebration home.
  • Will moviegoers finally find out what’s on Page 47? That’s a possibility as reports of a “National Treasure 3” movie are beginning to circulate. Chris Bremner, who was tapped to write a “Bad Boys 4” movie, told The Hollywood Reporter he would be writing the screenplay for “National Treasure 3.” “National Treasure,” released in 2004, starred Nicolas Cage an amateur cryptologist Benjamin Franklin Gates. The movie pulled in $247 million worldwide for Disney, Variety reported. The cast, including Cage, Diane Kruger, Justin Bartha, Jon Voight, Harvey Keitel and Armando Riesc, returned for the 2007 sequel, “National Treasure: Book of Secrets.' That film made $457 worldwide, Variety reported. The sequel ended with the characters looking at 'Page 47” of a secret book owned by the president of the United States, but no explanation was given. Jerry Bruckheimer is reportedly producing the upcoming film, People reported. Jon Turtletaub directed the first two films. A Disney spokesman did not respond to the magazine’s request for comment.
  • Prince Harry and Meghan Markle are no longer working members of the Royal Family, Queen Elizabeth II announced Saturday in a statement. The Queen said the Sussexes “will continue to maintain their private patronages and associations.” The couple also will no longer formally represent the Queen, the statement said. 'Harry, Meghan and Archie will always be much-loved members of my family, the Queen wrote. “I recognize the challenges they have experienced as a result of intense scrutiny over the last two years and support their wish for a more independent life.” The couple will forgo state funding and repay millions of taxpayer dollars used to refurbish their official residence in Windsor, The New York Times reported. The agreement will go into effect later this spring and will be reviewed by the palace after a year, the newspaper reported. “The Sussexes will not use their HRH titles as they are no longer working members of the Royal Family,” according to the statement from Buckingham Palace. The agreement was made to end the crisis that began 10 days ago when the couple announced plans to step back from their royal duties and spend time in North America, the Times reported.
  • Odell Beckham Jr.'s legal problems might be behind him. The Superdome officer who was slapped on the rear by the Cleveland Browns wide receiver after LSU’s championship victory Monday has decided not to press charges, NOLA.com reported. A video of the encounter has gone viral. The website, citing several anonymous sources, said the 48-year-old officer had signed an affidavit saying he did not want to pursue legal action against Beckham, 27, who is from New Orleans and played for LSU. The New Orleans Police Department had obtained a warrant for Beckham’s arrest on a count of simple battery, WAFB reported. New Orleans police could rescind the warrant or continue to pursue it, NOLA.com reported. According to the website, the officer had ordered LSU players to put out celebratory cigars lit in the locker room. While talking with one player, the lieutenant said he was struck in the rear by a man who was identified as Beckham. The Browns issued a statement Thursday and said Beckham’s representatives “are cooperating with authorities to appropriately address the situation,” WAFB reported. Beckham has already come under scrutiny for reportedly throwing cash at players after the Tigers’ 42-25 victory against Clemson, potentially violating NCAA rules.