Brief winter revenge for much of the country

Light frost possible Thursday morning, big system arrives here Saturday

This is an update to the blog I posted Monday morning on this topic. Forecast still on track.

A cold front sweeping through today brings back a chill to the air. Temperatures 15 degrees lower this afternoon compared to yesterdays high of 75 and around 14 degrees below-normal for this time of year.

The combination of very dry air and NW winds gusting to over 30 mph at times has prompted the National Weather Service (NWS) Atlanta to issued a WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH FIRE DANGER STATEMENT for all of Metro Atlanta today.

Over the next couple nights 111 million people in the U.S. expected to have a temperature of 32F or lower.

RECORD COLD THIS MORNING:

LATE SEASON SNOW YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT:

FROST FREEZE AND WINTER PRECIP BULLETINS WIDESPREAD FROM SW TO NE TODAY/TONIGHT:

FORECAST RECORD LOWS (SQUARES) THURSDAY MORNING:

MULTI-MODEL FORECAST LOWS TOMORROW MORNING:

ANALOG GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LIGHT FROST OR FREEZE IN PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA:

Longer-range warm up ahead (my forecast will vary from computer guidance shown below):

ON APRIL 15th I TWEETED:

This window of opportunity for some heavy weather potential was made using methods from before the computer age utilizing signals from the North Pacific Ocean. Now the modern computer models are picking up on it as well:

Some heavy rain 1-2 inches is expected here Saturday (we need it as rainfall is well below-normal of late) and a strong or severe thunderstorm is possible, although current guidance suggests the worst will again be outside of most of the Atlanta Metro area. But it’s enough days away for that to change so stay tuned.

The location of what I think will be TWO warm fronts will determine where the heaviest rain falls and where the greater severe weather threat will be and that is TBD.

FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY FORECAST SURFACE WEATHER CHART:

FORECAST RAINFALL ESTIMATE SATURDAY:

SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREAS SATURDAY USING DIFFERENT TECHNIQUES:

SPC OFFICIAL OUTLOOK:

Sunday drys out behind the system:

RAINFALL DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

The mountains have been wetter than normal but the rest of the area has seen below-normal rainfall for many weeks:

For updates and more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB and listen on 95.5 WSB.

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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