Brief polar plunge still in store for Christmas

Some brief snow flurries still possible Christmas Eve

This cold snap will in fact be a snap, in and out very quickly. A warming trend starts Sunday.

First heavy rain and strong gusty winds 30 MPH or higher and maybe isolated thunder along and ahead of the strong cold front on Thursday. Tree limbs or trees could fall causing an isolated power outage or isolated damage. But no widespread severe thunderstorms expected for the Atlanta area.

Best chance for any real snow accumulation in the mountains but not a lot.

Any snow flurries in Metro Atlanta late Thursday afternoon or overnight will not last long and I do not expect meaningful accumulation or any travel impact for Metro Atlanta (at least as of this posting Tue. 22nd morning).

Canadian Model CHRISTMAS EVE 2PM:

Canadian Model CHRISTMAS EVE EVENING:

American NAM Model DECEMBER 24th EARLY EVENING:

I’ve looked at 7 deterministic/operational models as well as ensembles equating to over 9 dozen model simulations (outcome scenarios) and the conclusion is that it STILL does NOT look like any significant snow for most of Georgia as of this post. As I stated in previous blog posts I hope you read, that is typical with a cold front.

That does NOT mean that things can’t change. It is after all the weather and the future.

WIND CHILL FACTOR “FEELS LIKE” CHRISTMAS MORNING:

Christmas Day dry and very cold.

Coldest Christmas in Atlanta in 21 years possible.

As I’ve discussed on Twitter and other blog posts the potential for increased high latitude blocking of the jet stream with a negative AO/NAO with the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and Polar Vortex (PV) disruption is growing in the first 10 days of January, this suggests the weather across the nation will remain busy with volatility continuing next month. This keeps hope alive that parts of the Southeast can end up with a real snow at some point beyond this week before winter is done.

Although some of the analogs indicate more of an ice storm threat for the known CAD (cold air damning) regions.

IF this winter is to average out below-normal on temps it will have to warm up a lot in the end.

As I’ve been posting while on Christmas vacation I will stop now until I am back to work. Enjoy the holidays. Peace on Earth and Goodwill toward all.

For daily weather info follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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