The coming week will be covered on-air (and all streaming options via the internet) and with my 5-day forecast available 24/7/365 on 95.5 WSB Radio, our homepage on the web and on demand with our WSB Radio APP. You can click straight to weather if you chose. 

Nothing too extreme is foreseen as I type this Sunday morning for the week ahead. Mostly warm with some showers at times maybe a thunderstorm. However, check my specific 5-day updates each day for my latest forecast!

Looking beyond that... some interesting potential. Potential for severe weather and a brief sharp cold snap. But potential is the key word right now thanks to considerable model spread on the medium to long-range outcome.

The first CHANCE for any severe weather looks to be sometime in the next Thursday-Sunday timeframe (maybe 2 separate events) but due to aforementioned model disagreement too soon for any details yet.

There seems to be a more robust signal in the data for severe weather around April 14th give or take a day. This possible event is hinted at by both model numerical equations and analog schemes.

Before or after that SOME of the analog methods are suggestive of a frost or freeze risk in about 6 days and again maybe after any second or third severe episode, if it happens, mid-April.

Notice the active up and down pattern of temperatures thanks to the series of storm systems lined up in the split-jet stream pattern Polar and subtropical jet streams shown in the Northern Hemisphere satellite water vapor image shown at the top of the blog with systems lined up from China into the U.S. and Canada.

At least for now I am skeptical of any critical chill coming to fruition thanks to many model false alarms since early December when it comes to cold waves. But it’s worth watching in case since all the plants are two weeks or more ahead of schedule. If we do get a cold shot or two I would expect they would be transient.

MODEL AND ANALOG MAPS DAYS 7-13:

So in general I think this month will feature MOTS. More of the same to what we experienced in March. Mainly above normal temperatures but with some chill periods that allow the month to average near-normal on temps with normal to above-normal rainfall and at least normal severe weather threats including large hail.

MODEL BLEND MEAN:

GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN:

Then hotter than average for summer in much of the country with a drought risk for the Southeast (but if it happens at least the lake water supply will not be a problem thanks to wet winter and spring).

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