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Badly needed rain on the way
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Badly needed rain on the way

Badly needed rain on the way

Badly needed rain on the way

The long-awaited shift in the weather pattern is underway as what has been for MOST of us a 3-week long dry spell ends and the chance of rain and scattered thunderstorms will be on the increase along with the humidity Today through next Wednesday and the temperatures will trend down with the increase in cloud cover.

The map above shows estimated 5-day rainfall totals. 

I haven’t been able to say below-normal temperatures in a couple months but that’s whats coming tomorrow through much of next week!

AS of now not expecting much in the way of  severe weather but stay tuned in case that changes in the days ahead.

Despite my having explained this a thousand times people still don’t seem to understand the chance of rain. You can have the chance of rain be 100% likely, but 90% of the day could be dry. It doesn’t have to mean a rainy day or wash-out. 

It CAN mean that IF thats what the forecaster tells you, the devil is in the details so you have to listen to my explanation on the radio, on twitter, and here in the blog or in the forecast detail box at wsbradio.com by clicking on the forecast link. 

You can google POP (probability of precipitation) and read all about it to learn more. 

So far I do not see any total wash-out days, however Friday-Sunday could come close. 

In the past I’ve observed the models often mistake tropical moisture for all rain when much of it just goes into cloud production, also heavy rain occurring near the Gulf Coast can often siphon off rain that would otherwise occur further North. I’ll be better able to fine-tune these details in the days ahead so check back. 

What’s causing the new weather pattern?

The entrainment of an influx of moisture will be driven into the Southern Plains and Dixie to the East Coast over the next 7 days as an upper level cut-off low pressure system (blue ball in maps below) ejects out from the Desert Southwest into the Southeast between now and next Wednesday. Some of this moisture can be attributed to the tropical system from the Gulf of Mexico near Texas:

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The upper level “cut-off” low pressure system in the jet stream weakens as it moves through our region but it will still be juicy as it pulls in deeper gulf moisture and squeezes it out. 

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EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY:

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Above-normal rain the next 10-15 days means normal or below-normal temperatures:

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GFS ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE:

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For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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News

  • The father of the Florida man accused of killing his wife, three children and family dog, also had a history of violence, according to court records dating back 40 years. Robert Todt was convicted by a jury in 1980 for a murder-to-hire plot. It bears an eerie parallel to this week, when his son, Anthony Todt, told Osceola County detectives that he killed his wife, three children and family dog at their Celebration home, WFTV reported. Alan Rubenstein is now a judge in the same Pennsylvania community where he was an assistant district attorney in 1980, and prosecuted Robert Todt’s case. He said the Todts appeared to have a picturesque life. Neighbors had great things to say about Robert Todt, who was a special education teacher and wrestling coach at a Pennsylvania high school. Then, he was arrested for hiring one of his students to kill his wife, Loretta Todt, on March 19, 1980, at their Bensalem home, People reported. The student, John Chairmonte, pleaded guilty to his involvement, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported in 1980. At the time, Chairmonte was characterized as a “burglar and a drug addict,” the newspaper reported in a Dec. 13, 1980, Inquirer story. “Who do you expect Bob Todt to hire to kill his wife, Donny Osmond?' Rubenstein told the newspaper. “A shot was fired right into her skull,” Rubenstein told WFTV on Friday. “It landed through her left eye and blinded her. She should’ve died, but, amazingly, she survived.” What originally seemed like a home invasion didn’t add up, Rubenstein said. “Then we did some background checking on (Robert) Todt,” Rubenstein told WFTV. “We found out about his being engaged to this woman while he was married, about his various girlfriends, the fact that he was having a relationship with one of his students.” When Robert Todt was convicted in 1981, “everybody was wailing, especially his family members and Loretta,” Rubenstein recalled. “The calmest person in the courtroom was Robert Todt.” Robert Todt served about 10 years in prison. Investigators said Anthony Todt was in the home when his mother was shot. A local newspaper reported he woke up to his mother’s screams. Many have described Anthony Todt as a loving father and husband, devoted physical therapist and soccer coach to neighborhood kids. Investigators said they found Anthony Todt’s family’s bodies Monday, but believe Todt killed them weeks earlier. The FBI is also investigating Todt for Medicaid fraud, and records show he was being evicted from their Celebration home.
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