All eyes turn to Laura

Major impact expected

Laura is still being negatively affected by some dry air and Northerly wind vectors which are impeding rapid intensification, for now. None-the-less the storm is getting somewhat better organized and is continuing to gain strength.

Rapid Intensification is possible in a day or two. I have not seen any model project less than a Category 2 storm, plenty are at Cat 3 and a few 4-5 by landfall.

HOWEVER, as I’ve been pointing out all season and for years now, we must remember that both models and humans struggle with intensity forecasts for these storms and they often strengthen and weaken much differently than we expect even while forecast tracks are much more accurate.

It would be no surprise if the National Hurricane Center shifts its forecast track farther to the West in future updates.

Hurricane warnings and coastal storm surge warnings have been issued.

The ACTUAL CENTER of Laura has consistently ended up to the left (Southwest) of what the models and NHC have projected! And the trend from the NHC since the start has been to need to adjust their forecasts more to the West over time.

I filled up the car gas tank yesterday given the data, I was low anyway so wanted to avoid any possible brief price spike. Yellow dots are natural gas and oil rigs:

There is no shortage of available heat fuel from the Gulf sea surface temperates as it’s pretty much all above key threshold values of 28C:

For more Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Kirk Mellish

Meteorologist

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