Active jet stream, changeable weather

The surface weather chart above shows the fair weather autumn high pressure moving into our area and the big ‘Nor easter storm in New England with a formative potential tropical system in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.

It looks like an active changeable weather pattern the next couple weeks with a wavy progressive jet stream bringing fronts and/or low pressure systems along every few days.

The weather systems progress East Northeast by the end of the day Friday:

SURFACE WEATHER CHART SATURDAY MORNING:

SURFACE WEATHER CHART TUESDAY MORNING:

ESTIMATED WEEKEND RAIN AMOUNTS:

ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS MONDAY/TUESDAY:

SEE how the jet stream flow changes from mostly zonal West to East to a trough in the East with flow from the Northwest, this means any warm-ups will come and go. In fact, Sunday and Monday will probably be the warmest days for the rest of October:

Indications are this pattern will extend well into November allowing for badly needed above-normal rainfall with up and down temperatures:

Model ensemble teleconnection charts support the cooler trends to end October and start November (search engine terms for details):

Rainfall above-average the next 3-6 weeks:

ECMWF MODEL ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE:

MULTI MODEL BLEND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE:

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

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