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    The coming week will be covered on-air (and all streaming options via the internet) and with my 5-day forecast available 24/7/365 on 95.5 WSB Radio, our homepage on the web and on demand with our WSB Radio APP. You can click straight to weather if you chose.   Nothing too extreme is foreseen as I type this Sunday morning for the week ahead. Mostly warm with some showers at times maybe a thunderstorm. However, check my specific 5-day updates each day for my latest forecast! Looking beyond that... some interesting potential. Potential for severe weather and a brief sharp cold snap. But potential is the key word right now thanks to considerable model spread on the medium to long-range outcome.  The first CHANCE for any severe weather looks to be sometime in the next Thursday-Sunday timeframe (maybe 2 separate events) but due to aforementioned model disagreement too soon for any details yet.  There seems to be a more robust signal in the data for severe weather around April 14th give or take a day. This possible event is hinted at by both model numerical equations and analog schemes.  Before or after that SOME of the analog methods are suggestive of a frost or freeze risk in about 6 days and again maybe after any second or third severe episode, if it happens, mid-April.  Notice the active up and down pattern of temperatures thanks to the series of storm systems lined up in the split-jet stream pattern Polar and subtropical jet streams shown in the Northern Hemisphere satellite water vapor image shown at the top of the blog with systems lined up from China into the U.S. and Canada.  At least for now I am skeptical of any critical chill coming to fruition thanks to many model false alarms since early December when it comes to cold waves. But it’s worth watching in case since all the plants are two weeks or more ahead of schedule. If we do get a cold shot or two I would expect they would be transient. MODEL AND ANALOG MAPS DAYS 7-13: So in general I think this month will feature MOTS. More of the same to what we experienced in March. Mainly above normal temperatures but with some chill periods that allow the month to average near-normal on temps with normal to above-normal rainfall and at least normal severe weather threats including large hail.  MODEL BLEND MEAN: GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN: Then hotter than average for summer in much of the country with a drought risk for the Southeast (but if it happens at least the lake water supply will not be a problem thanks to wet winter and spring). For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • The models continue to suggest APRIL will average out near-normal to above normal on temperatures and rainfall, with brief up and downs on the thermometer.  To get a VERY PRELIMINARY look at the coming SUMMER pattern I don’t yet incorporate models except to try to get a read on the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). Currently we are in what is known as the “Spring barrier” for ENSO where the models accuracy for predicting the state of the Pacific Ocean SSTA is poor. So for what it’s worth they presently show a neutral to weak La Nina for the Summer and Fall. This, if correct, hints at heat for summer in much of the country and an above normal number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic/Caribbean in the autumn.  To assess what the past can tell us about the future we look for analogs to recent weather behavior and current sea-surface temperature patterns around the hemisphere.  Using these and signals from how the winter played out plus recent and current jet stream patterns we can identify past years that are similar and use these as a possible guide to the future.  The total list of very preliminary analogs: Using the “best match” from this winter yields these analogs: So at this early juncture it looks like a widespread warmer than normal summer is on the way, a long hot summer that starts in May for some areas unless future analogs shift. Confidence is fairly high for the temperatures but the rainfall outlook has lower confidence as there has been a trend since 2013 for wetter summers with the Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico running warmer than normal: For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • The estimated average rainfall amounts next 24 hours shown above.  Showers early this morning become more widespread rain and heavier heading into the lunch hour then diminishing to scattered coverage later afternoon and then isolated leftover shower ending in most areas by early tonight. A thunderstorm possible, strongest South. Much cooler today and tomorrow, in fact below the average high of 68. Temperatures today will not change much during the daylight hours. Chilly and breezy Wednesday with some patchy light frost possible away from I-285 Thursday morning.  Dry weather returns tomorrow through Sunday with low to mid 70s Friday through Sunday.  Chance of rain returns next week.  SURFACE WEATHER CHART TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON: SEVERE WEATHER RISK LEVELS TUESDAY: For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • We stay dry and warm today as seen in surface weather chart above, the shower chance is after midnight. The ONLY rain day of the week looks to be tomorrow with a few scattered light showers in the area during morning drive tomorrow, with rain more likely afternoon and evening, a risk of severe weather in Central and South Georgia, also noticeably cooler in Metro Atlanta tomorrow: Any pre-sunrise shower Wednesday goes away and it turns mostly sunny and cool. Some patchy light frost (no freeze) is possible Thursday morning away from the permitter.  24-HOUR RAINFALL ESTIMATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: MULTI-MODEL BLEND TEMPERATURE OUTPUT: MY 5-DAY FORECAST HERE.  For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB. 
  • Pollen levels soared Thursday in Atlanta, hitting the highest pollen count so far this year. The count reached 3,697 pollen particles per cubic meter of air on Thursday morning, up from 664 particles the previous day. Atlanta Allergy and Asthma, the organization that tracks the daily pollen count, considers that to be extremely high. Last year, Atlanta topped out with a pollen count of 6,575 on April 13. Tree pollen like oak, pine, hackberry, juniper and mulberry were the top contributors to Thursday’s count, according to the organization. The high range for tree pollen begins at 90 and enters the extremely high range at 1,500. Grass pollen was also in the high range Thursday. » RELATED: Metro Atlanta pollen count and allergy index » MORE: Who counts pollen and how is it measured? Weather conditions can play a factor in the amount of pollen in the air, according to Dr. Stanley Fineman with Atlanta Allergy and Asthma. Dry conditions and higher temperatures over the past couple of days have contributed to the higher counts. 'It is not unusual to see wide variations in daily pollen counts at this time of year,' Fineman said. 'With the warmer temperatures, the trees are pollinating; however, rain or sporadic colder temps can cause a transient lowering of pollen counts throughout the coming weeks.' Counts were much lower Monday and Tuesday after a series of storm systems brought rain to North Georgia. But after a dry day Wednesday, numbers began to rise. It may be several more days before rain brings any relief to allergy sufferers. Except for a 40% chance of showers Sunday, sunshine and above-average temperatures are in the forecast through the start of next week, according to Channel 2 Action News. » ALSO: How to tell the difference between coronavirus and seasonal allergy symptoms “It’s going to feel more like late June around here as we head into the end of the week and the start of the weekend,” Channel 2 meteorologist Brian Monahan said. For those still looking to enjoy the fresh air this weekend, Monahan said it is best to get outside before dawn.  “That is the best time, because the moisture in the atmosphere kind of settles the pollen near the ground, and you may not suffer as much from those allergies in the early morning hours before the sun comes up,” he said.  Helpful tips during allergy season Keep your car and house windows closed. Run the air conditioner on a recycled setting instead. Change or clean your air filters regularly. Shower before going to bed or when you get home. Pollen can settle into your hair and onto your clothes and skin, so a shower will keep you from breathing in pollen all night. Wash off indoor pets’ paws and wipe down their fur with a damp cloth or towel if they’ve been outdoors. Pets can easily track pollen into your home, leaving it on your carpets and furniture. Avoid outdoor activities until early evening, or head outside before dawn. Pollen counts tend to be highest in the mornings after sunrise.
  • Happy to be able to forecast a few consecutive dry days! Today we will see the clouds breaking to start the day with a good dose of sun this afternoon.  It will be noticeably cooler tonight but we get a warming trend to above-normal temperatures tomorrow through the weekend.  A chance of showers returns late Saturday night into the first half of Sunday but light rain amounts in most cases.  Cooler weather returns with showers by next Tuesday. Temperatures much of next week will be near-normal to cooler than normal.  SURFACE WEATHER MAP THURSDAY: SURFACE WEATHER CHART FRIDAY: SURFACE WEATHER CHART SATURDAY: MULTI-MODEL BLEND MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE: MY EXCLUSIVE 5-DAY FORECAST HERE.  For more Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • A strong jet stream aloft with an embedded upper-level disturbance and a surface low pressure frontal system will bring back showers and thunderstorms tonight across much of Georgia and the rest of the Southeast.  A tornado watch has already been issued to our North and West where a strong tornado risk exists: For Metro Atlanta a few hit and miss showers early this evening will give way to increasing coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms later tonight. A few storms may become severe. Sooner for the mountains but for the Atlanta area the main threat window is 9pm to 3am give or take a couple hours. The last shower ending before 7am Wednesday.  The SEVERE WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS 2/5 North and marginal 1/5 South: ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE: To get severe weather alerts or listen live download the WSB RADIO APP Tell your smart speaker or stream us live on your desktop, laptop or phone. For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • 2-day rainfall estimate in map above.  My Exclusive 5-Day Forecast here. The next 4-6 weeks are pretty straightforward and can be summed up as warmer than normal with frequent frontal passage showers.  “April showers bring May flowers” is the old adage, but this year we started all that 1-2 months ahead of schedule and that trend will continue through April.  As we transition to drier than normal and hotter than normal for the Summer, we will have to watch for a brief spell of significant severe weather along the way, but nothing specific is showing up just yet. If I had to estimate I would say a first opportunity Saturday March 28th give or take a day and again around April 1st. give or take a couple days.  **BEFORE that a low risk of a damaging thunderstorm today or Tuesday.**  Briefly cooler than normal weather may follow any stormy weather to end the month. But before then it’s unseasonably warm (warmer than normal even for Spring) starting Tuesday.  While April is expected to be warmer than normal (on average) there will probably still be a brief cool snap or two. Rainfall is expected to be above-average despite some dry spells.  CFSV2 APRIL: NOAA/NWS APRIL: MARCH 29-APRIL 4TH: MULTI-MODEL AVERAGE ANOMALY WEEKS 3-4: We may see a heat ridge set up over the Southeast U.S. starting in May, if it does as expected it will verify the expected pendulum swing away from the wet Winter and early Spring  to much drier.   As a side note, preliminary indications from ocean sea surface temperatures indicate an active hurricane season this year, but we have plenty of time to address that further in the months ahead. The season starts in June and runs through November, usually peaking in September.  For more Follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
  • The mountains had a couple of little snows and one good sized snow. The far North suburbs of Atlanta had one OK snow or one good snow in a small portion of the area on one day.  Many saw at least some flakes, sleet or grauple mainly from near Hartsfield Northward. Most of the Southern suburbs got a lot of nothing as per usual.  We had many cold snaps lasting a couple days or so. Other than that Old Man Winter was largely missing in action this season with many days with well above-normal temperatures and even some near records.  This all despite pretty good signals back in October that a decent winter was coming up for much of the country East of the Missouri River.  The snow forecast ended up being OK for half the area but just by the skin of our teeth, but all the warmth was not anticipated in my winter outlook.  What happened? As far as I can tell it may be related to why the models have struggled much more than normal beyond 5 days for a couple years in a row. All the warmth in the oceans and the arctic is distorting the temperature gradient (baroclinicity) between the high and low latitudes in turn disrupting jet stream patterns and the air masses and weather systems the jet streams produce and move. So in short the main jet streams become stronger and more zonal or West to East and the contorting blocking patterns needed for lasting cold largely vanish.  So we saw this winter things go from looking favorable in October to November breaking down over the ensuing months as the RECORD +IOD destructively influenced the MJO/ENSO/WPO/EPO/AO/NAO and the base state of the PDO and AMO shifted on us.  Most of the energy in the atmosphere after the sun comes from the oceans and is imparted to the atmosphere including the Polar Vortex (A0) and the jet streams which is why all that alphabet soup above is all interconnected in some ways we understand and undoubtedly ways we don’t yet understand. The warm Pacific Waters retreated from near the U.S. West Coast to further back West (PDO) and the North Pacific warm blog also cooled and the warm Atlantic (AMO) (warmest since 1950) helped sprawl upper level high pressure ridging in the Greater Antilles-Sargasso Sea (Cuba-Hispaniola) regions flexing into the Southeast U.S. All that changed the prevailing jet stream behavior from what expectations were back in the autumn. In other words the changes in the oceans and arctic and the stratosphere meant the analog years from past history ended up not fitting. It was striking this winter to see a record +IOD down around India-Australia underneath a near record +AO over the North Pole, something unprecedented in the record books.  So naturally new patterns emerge that have not been experienced in quite the same way before by man or machine. That shifting climate patterns will produce a shift from past averages makes logical sense. 
  • The next 7 days looks somewhat similar to the past week, not the constant rain and flooding amounts of prior weeks but far from days of dry weather and sun.  “Showery” would be a good descriptive, plenty of dry areas and dry hours in between rain or thunder and some sunshine at times later in the week. Except for a brief chilly wedge Monday much warmer than normal will predominate. April showers bring May flowers but that Spring pattern is already underway here in March. Global satellite imagery reveals a split jet stream pattern with storms lined up from China to the Pacific Northwest and from the Equator to Mexico and the Southern states. So it’ll be hard to get any extended dry spells or multiple days of sunny weather through April with no major pattern change until May and June when the shift is to drier than normal and warmer than normal.  NOTE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATE AVERAGE IS MODEST: MULTI-MODEL BLEND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE: For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.