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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

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Georgia October temperatures average near-normal, with trend toward above North and below Southeast but not by much.

October weather outlook

Long-range outlook for October.

The amount needed to eliminate the ongoing long-term drought.

Drought update

National and Georgia drought update. How much rain is needed to eliminate the long-term drought?

The two Almanacs do not agree.

Winter 2011-12 Farmers Almanacs

The two long-range forecasts from The Old Farmer's Almanac and the Farmers' Almanac for the coming winter disagree.

Winter season La Nina historical impacts.

Winter research 2011-2012

Two harsh winters have followed two hot summers, are we in for a third? An official LA NINA ADVISORY has been issued. So far this September has been very unlike last September so signals are mixed for the winter of 2011-2012. This is background for the winter outlook which will come out by December 1st.

Summer 2011 was cooler than normal in the West and Northwest with the hottest weather in the Southern Plains.

Review of summer 2011

Summer 2011 indeed H O T. My long-range forecast for summer in Atlanta issued in late May was good for rainfall/drought, poor for temperatures.

The 06Z run of the Global Forecast System American weather model differs greatly with the future track of Nate compared to the ECMWF model, it also differs from its own previous run!

Tropical cyclones Maria and Nate

Future of Maria and Nate not set in stone this far in advance, but no threat through the weekend.

These are the most likely path tropical storms and hurricanes take when they form in September according to NOAA.

Lee, Katia, Maria?

Goodbye Lee. Katia near-miss, monitoring Gulf and Caribbean for new tropical threats next couple weeks.

Katia and Lee update

Lee good news bad news for the South, dents drought and heat the hard way, impacts Georgia into Wednesday. Katia could still hit or at least brush near the East Coast from NC to Boston, brushing coastal New England and SE Atlantic Canada Nova Scotia-Newfoundland end of this week into next weekend. Two other tropical threats possible long-term Gulf and East Coat BEYOND Lee and Katia so stay tuned.

Look at how the two main global models are worlds apart on Lee Labor Day Night. The European Model (top) shows tropical storm Lee in Gulf heading to South Texas as a major hurricane. Meanwhile the American Model (bottom) has it as a weak tropical storm heading northeast ending up off the Georgia/South Carolina coast.

Hurricane season 2011

Katia and Lee sittin in a tree. Seasons change.

Hurricane Irene meteorologist notes

Irene was an historic storm in many ways. The total population affected and the widespread power loss put it at the top of all tropical cyclones to hit the U.S. It's diminished wind despite undiminished low pressure is a meteorological first.

Autumn 90-day weather outlook

Relief from the long hot summer comes but slowly. No relief from the dryness unless we get a lucky tropical system or two.

Comfortable summers in Atlanta are rare

Comfortable summers in Atlanta are rare, it's a climate thing. This is Part II of summer temperature analysis for Atlanta.

Atlanta summer running hot but it's been worse

We are running close to last summer for heat waves this summer, but it's small comfort that it's not even close to being a record hot summer.

Understanding summer thunderstorm forecasts

What is POP? Probability of precipitation in forecasting parlance. What do those chances mean and what are the odds? Here is a forecast 101 tutorial for "air-mass thundershowers" in the heart of summertime. Although geared toward Georgia it applies in summer across most of the country.

Dog days of summer return to Atlanta

You can keep your cool and save money running the air conditioning at the same time. Meanwhile, where it is wet it tends to stay wet and where it is hot and dry it tends to say hot and dry. Natures positive feedback keeps flood areas wet and dry areas in drought. Wet soils can increase the chance of rain by up to 25%.

Excessive heat wave alert

It's hot and getting hotter, but Atlanta spared the worst. Commonsense precautions will allow you to get through the brief heat wave just fine.

Tornado season update

Tornado season bad to the bone, an update to date.

60-day weather outlook

Summer's worst should be behind us by July 16th if not after this week. Here is what the analog package shows for July and August.

Sun cycle quiet

Unusual sun behavior leads to fears of even harsher winters in the years ahead, years without a summer, or even another little ice age. On the other hand, there is no scientific consensus on past or future impacts from solar cycles. There is also a chance if global cooling from the sun is balanced by global warming from man neither will be as extreme as they might have been otherwise. Read the full story.

drought spreads

Hot dry weather in much of the Southern tier of U.S.

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