A new approach to prediction could eventually allow forecasters to identify portions of states facing high risk for tornadoes in an upcoming month. Scientists have developed a fledgling ability to predict monthly tornado activity in the US up to one month in advance.
In many ways the threat of tornadoes in the Mid-South and Southeast is greater than the traditional "tornado alley" of the Great Plains and Midwest. Read on to learn why. See the tornado tracks in Georgia and adjacent states since 1950.
There were roughly 3 dozen tornadoes reported in Georgia last year including at least 4 killer twisters.
This is severe weather awareness week in Georgia. A La Nina spring like this one in the past have been deadly in the nation. The winter headlines in Europe have in the past been a precursor to such cold and snow in the Eastern Third of the US so we have to stay alert that we don't go from mild to wild and from shorts to shivers. Some models suggest this in the Feb. 11-Feb 20 period but others do not.
Groundhog or not the calendar says 6 more weeks of winter. But it has not been much of a winter so far and there are no solid signs of any long lasting big change, but a few mixed signals do exist.
Journalism has been dead for a long time, replaced by "infotainment" talk shows and soundbyte headlines. Talk is now news and it fills the mainstream media on radio and TV and papers and blogs on the net. Talk is cheap.
The insurance industry is raising rates on homeowners policies and will try to do the same for auto rates blaming more severe and extreme weather for causing greater losses. Many skeptics have poo-pooed the idea that the climate has become more extreme but the insurance industry says frequency trends of damaging weather are becoming greater and when added to population growth, development and inflation it all adds up. See previous blog story on homeowners rates.
The debate continues in the scientific community as to if weather has become more extreme. But the insurance business has decided the answer is yes it has. The only response, raise your bill.
What do you call the January Thaw when winter temperatures have only been very cold for brief spells?
As expected more changeable and volatile weather is on tap the rest of January and on into early February as things are on the move in both the troposphere and the stratosphere.
More interesting weather than November and most of December for January 2012. Weather patterns look changeable and volatile as warm and cold spells alternate coming and going and making precipitation in the swings.
I have not changed my winter outlook. I still think Atlanta will average out near-normal to a little above normal in temperature and precipitation near-normal with the warmest and driest in South Georgia and wettest and coolest in North Georgia. But the NWS/NOAA has updated their view.
It appears no major change is needed in the long-range outlook for winter. We should have a much milder one than last year and one much closer to what we normally expect in the South. But changes are coming after a milder than average November, December should go in the other direction.
Severe weather in November is hardly unprecedented in Atlanta. It looks like our thermometer roller coaster ride will continue into December.
A new radar technology is coming to Atlanta's National Weather Service Doppler Radar.
The sun has become more active than at any time since 2005 as witnessed by the Aurora seen as far south as Georgia at the end of October. Additional solar flares may be on the way from a new giant sunspot being monitored.
The outlook for the winter of 2011-2012. Last winter turned warmer than normal by mid-February after a cold snowy start.
In estimating the weather for a coming season we look at a very long list of indicators. Like predicting the economy or the stock market well in advance, signals are often mixed. No two winters, even ones that have a lot of ocean-atmosphere markers in common are ever the same. Similar but not the same. We forecast based on what such past signals have brought, but they are the average or mean of many variations. Since a picture is worth a thousand words, take a look at what things like a +PNA or a -NAO mean. We can not predict these but days to weeks in advance. So we look at other signals to get an idea of what the "mean state" of these might be in the season ahead.
A peak at weather into November and the autumn leaves.
Long-range outlook for October.