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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary
Early peak at autumn and winter weather
Another welcome break in the extreme heat and a brief respite from high humidity, too. Quite the opposite of last summers unrelenting and persistent heat. Looking to the Oceans for answers to Fall and Winter.
The weather pause that refreshes but not quite
Another break in the heat but like the last time a surge in humidity lessens the comfort factor. But also like the last break it means rain hopes are kept alive. Hotter weather to make a come-back before the month is done but still no reason to think 100s return this summer. Here is a look at the medium range forecast and some tidbits about August weather patterns.
Keep your cool because nature wont
Early long-range forecasts for tornado season and tropical storm season prove spot on so far. but still no lasting cool weather in sight.
El nino and long-range outlook
If no tropical storm forms this month it will be the first time since 2009. ENSO update: The Pacific conditions continue to indicate near neutral to weak El Nino. The consensus forecast is for a weak El Nino peaking in late fall or early winter with just over an 80% probability of El Nino October-December in the 3.4 region. Lets take a long look ahead at weather trends the next 90 days. Looks like the latest period of cooler than normal has come to an end for a good stretch.
Looking back at June ahead to winter
Well we were doing fine until the last days of June after a comfortable spring, but the heat started coming on strong June 28th and drought deepened in Metro Atlanta. So what's next? Here is the long-range weather outlook.
Record challenging heat wave
Temperatures in Atlanta not seen on these early summer dates in 58-76 years could be on the way. The highest reading ever recorded in Atlanta was 105 in July 1980. Our last bout of triple digits was summer 2007 which peaked at 104, but that was 2 months later than this heat wave August 22nd. Luckily this does NOT mean the whole summer stays hot like this, more normal summer weather will return. Hot spells happen every summer to one degree or another. Only the lucky will get a cooling thunderstorm Friday-Sunday.
NO repeat of last summer
All indications continue to point to a cooler summer than the last 2-4, certainly not like the brutal heat of last summer. We will have our heat spells to be sure, but with cool breaks too. So when you add it all up and divide by the 90-day period June, July and August we end up close to normal, maybe even a little below-average.
2012 Hurricane season outlook
As forecast a month ago the tropical storm season got off to a fast and early start this year, but the outlook calls for the total number of tropical storms and hurricanes to be lower than the past couple years, closer to the long-term average. The long term track record of these predictions is very good, particularly for the August updates. Just because there has already been two storms does not mean a active season. Seasons have started off early in the past only to turn dead. Here is the consensus of 15 forecast sources.
Random storm season is here
It's that time of year again, now through September. The most difficult time of year to forecast the weather. Because the weather maps often don't change much day to day, yet the weather sometimes does.
Summer 2012 forecast
The past three summers have been particularly hot. If the upper level jet stream ridge this summer sets up far enough to the West and is sharp enough, then the down stream trough would be strong enough to bring Atlanta a more run of the mill summer temperature-wise, and allow for periodic episodes of widespread thunderstorms. But this is a big IF that does not currently seem in the cards. So the early thinking on this summer is warmer and drier than average in Georgia.
Another frost? Early hurricane season outlook
It is a rare thing to have a frost or freeze after tax deadline day in Georgia. But the American GFS model keeps showing we may have lows in the mid 30s to low 40s early next week. If it occurs with light wind and clear sky that could mean a light frost. I am not predicting it YET. All early signs point to a weak El Nino and that points to a less active hurricane season.
60-day weather outlook
The temperature swings (cool and warm) over the next couple months look like they will balance out near-normal, rainfall also looks near-average to below-normal. Drought is expanding, increases odds of warmer than normal summer but as of now not expected to be as hot as last summer.
Warning about tornado warnings
Let me give my initial reaction to the testing of new tornado warning language. It's an experiment being conducted the rest of this tornado season in MO and KS.
Late frost or hot summer?
Late frost or hot summer? Birmingham NWS crunches some numbers. My summer forecast will be out by the end of May.
Hot spring and summer?
Does the warm winter mean a hot summer? Does this warm start to March mean we just get hotter from here the rest of spring? These are the questions I am being asked everywhere I go.
Understanding Doppler, weather warnings, and your safety
Doppler radar only fails to see 15% of tornadoes. But the false alarm rate is still around 70% because Doppler often cannot tell us which rotation will touchdown and which will not. Understanding how complex severe storms actually are and how this impacts the warnings can help keep you safe even if you've had warnings in the past where nothing happened to you.
Tornado outbreak in perspective
Perhaps the worst March tornado outbreak in the U.S. on record. It was in my blog back on Feb 6th that I discussed the concerns for another active start to tornado season in the U.S. given the La Nina pattern.
Mother natures same old song and dance
Will need to monitor thunderstorm intensity Wed., again Friday or Saturday, and again by the 11th give or take a day. One model even suggests accumulating snow in the mountains after the next weekend system March 5th give or take a day. Changeable, volatile, back and forth up and down is the late winter weather pattern and it looks to continue as we end winter and start spring as we march into March. The coming week looks to feature a Black Hills Blizzard with heavy snow extending into the upper Midwest and heavy rain and strong to severe thunderstorms for the corn belt, Mississippi River Valley and parts of the Old South the next 5-15 days. There will be cold spells but the cold is not overwhelming and it can not hold so warmth wins out on average the next 3-weeks. The spring forecast March-April-May is much the same and ...
90-day weather outlook
Here are the new maps for February and March and for the Spring months of March through May. Analog years are best matches to La Nina, ocean temperature patterns, solar cycle, and US winter patterns.
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