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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

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Past summers with a switch from El Nino to La Nina temperatures.

El Nino to La Nina implications for summer

Cooler than normal summer seems least likely outcome as of now.

Winter temps.

Winter 2015-16 by the numbers

The NWS looks back at winter in Georgia by the numbers.

Winter Weather Advisory

Old man winter coughs up a curveball

Temps just cold enough aloft to provides snow in the GA mountains and a mix in parts of Atlanta

Climate Prediction Center March Temp outlook

March outlook

The long-range outlook for March is for temps to average below-normal and precip above-normal in GA

Monday AM surface chart.

Big storm system next week

It appears a big winter storm will come to parts of the east and south next week.

Probability of significant ice in bulk of metro is low.

Greatest ice risk Monday NE Georgia

A storm system with precipitation is likely Monday but dry areas and hours to start.

National Weather Service Atlanta has issued a winter storm watch.

Mostly rain showers Monday, mainly late

A storm system with precipitation is likely Monday into Tuesday, may start Sunday night far north areas.

Sunday night projected weather.

Big ice storm NOT expected Monday but uncertainty remains

The models have been abnormally inconsistent about the Monday-Tuesday weather.

Shaded areas highlight potential for snow and/or ice by Monday. Details TBD.

Winter precip questions for Monday 15th

The next winter precipitation risk is late Sunday Night into Monday evening but nothing definitive as of now.

Chance of snow of 1 inch or greater Tuesday.

No certain big snow storm in sight yet

Windows of opportunity for winter precip will come and go rest of this month into March.

There are always multiple options of viable outcomes to any weather scenario as seen here as just one example. It applies to any weather situation and is why we give x % odds of something happening, it's the reason for forecast uncertainty, it's the reason even the best models and best forecasters are sometimes wrong. It's reality vs. public perception and it's reality vs. news entertainment.

Must read to understand weather forecasting

Weather is never as simple as pointing to a computer generated map animation no matter how colorful.

Projected 500mb jet stream pattern change.

Winter not over despite big warm up

The January Thaw comes late and into the start of February but won't hold.

How much snow fell and where. Flurries with no accumulation were even reported in North Florida.

Snow Storm of January 22-23 2016

How much fell and where, once in two generations storm in some areas.

Wind until 7pm ice until 1pm

Strong gusty winds and flakes blow off Nor'easter into Georgia

Lingering scattered snow showers wind down but wind gusts hard.

1-3 on average near and north of the red dots, lot of nothing south of blue dots, high variability inbetween but more curiosity than crisis.

Old Man Winter

Weather is constantly changing check back often for forecast updates, listen to the radio.

Friday AM model forecast jet stream and cyclonic vorticity.

Next winter storm threat

Our next brush with Old Man Winter is from the Nor'easter blizzard and ice storm heading up the Atlantic coast.

Chance of a tenth inch or more of ice accumulation. WPC

Winter weather Wednesday

A variety of weather alerts and bulletins for North Georgia Wednesday.

Areas in pink and blue will be monitored for potential winter precip.

Winter weather systems to watch

Monitoring two POSSIBILITIES for some winter mischief in Georgia this week.

You can google these to learn more about how these are used as signals in long-range weather forecasting.

Winter weather pattern to watch

Blocking patterns and split flows only open possible snow/ice window.

Extreme flips in weather patterns mean numerical equations struggle to solve the answer.

Weather pattern flips toward winter

Across the northern hemisphere the atmosphere is in flux flipping away from December pattern to one that can bring winter.

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