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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary 

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90-day summer departure from normal temperature average.

Summer forecast 2013

My outlook for summer 2013 June, July, August. I will tweak it if necessary by the first few days of June.

Southeast region departure from normal temperatures in March.

May-August weather outlook

30-90 Day weather outlook, nice to have Spring.

Common signs in coastal America.

2013 Tropical Storm and Hurricane season forecast

Another active tropical storm and hurricane season expected by most forecasters.

Typical tornado civil emergency siren.

Tornado sirens threat or menace?

Is that a tornado siren I hear? Who cares!

Will Mother Nature allow a spring?

Sick of cold snaps? What about spring and summer? Here is my long-range outlook.

Not much warmth to be found in the 240 hour European Model mean ensemble forecast.

More chill to come as we enter Spring

Spring officially begins with the equinox Wednesday March 20th at 7:02 AM EDT but Mother Nature does not care! Despite the weekend warmth 23/24th, no early spring.

Official weather symbols used on weather maps.

Citizen weather reporters wanted

MARCH MADNESS! I invite all weather enthusiasts to join our permanent weather bracket and become part of weather forecasting and reporting where you live.

Explosive cyclogenesis occurs as arctic air and jet stream hit warm moist Gulf of Mexico air mass forming low pressure along strong baroclinic zone in western Gulf off Texas coast as seen in IR Sat imagery.

Superstorm 1993 March Blizzard

The "Storm of the Century" or "Blizzard of the Century" or simply the great blizzard of March 93. It was all that and more. 7 days in advance it was shown by the computer models (which started in 1966) and with each passing day it looked worse. I remember the morning before the storm saying on air, "I can't believe what I am seeing, if the data doesn't change I am going to have to forecast a blizzard here in Atlanta". After predicting it all day I went to bed. I awoke in the wee hours looked out the window at a hard rain, and thought "I blew it, crap". Went to bed angry. Awoke a few hours later on that Saturday morning and noticed it was strangely bright for so early. I knew from being a kid in Chicago what that meant. SNOW DAY! The AMS/NWA gave me awards ...

We live here and only here. Never poop where you eat.

A brief statement on Global climate

A brief statement on Global Warming/Climate change/Greenhouse gases.

Daffodils turns thoughts to Spring Mostbeautifulflowers.com

Look ahead to spring weather

Spring outlook calls for a 3-month average with above-normal temperatures and near-normal to below-normal rainfall.

NOAA/NWS/NCEP Hydrometeorological Prediction Center 24-hour rainfall forecast Quantitative Precipitation Forecast QPF

Volatile and changeable weather

Volatile and changeable active weather pattern to continue rest of this month. Outlook for March and April is for temperatures near-normal to warmer than normal with above-normal precipitation.

Catoosa County Georgia twister damage.

Big mistakes during tornado warnings

5 Big Mistakes Made During Tornado Warnings. SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK IN GEORGIA FEBRUARY 4-8TH.

NOAA Doppler detected rotation shows the North Georgia tornado originated from a storm with strong rotation in NE Alabama, but the tornado did not touch down in Alabama as the rotation remained aloft.

North Georgia Tornado January 30th

The detection rate for tornadoes on Doppler is very high, sadly so is the false alarm rate. You may die if you rely on and wait for so-called "Tornado Sirens". I did a screen grab of the Atlanta hourly weather forecast off a well know weather company website for that day, it showed cloudy with a 10% chance of rain! Automated forecasts on the web or mobile devices are robots with no meteorologist involved. This can lead you astray in a big bad way if you rely on them in changeable weather. RADIO is the original social media for weather! Radio is the original web source.

National Weather Service summary map of significant ice accumulation.

January 25th ice

That Atlanta National Weather Service has compiled a summary map of the Friday January 25 ice event in North Georgia. Here is their map.

Computer generated probability of a slight amount freezing rain.

Friday no snow but light rain may freeze

Read the blog and the previous post "Brush with Old Man Winter" for details on Friday weather. No power loss issues are expected for the Atlanta area, and whatever falls will not last long. The weekend looks dry and a big warm up comes next week.

The chance of at least one inch of snow.

Friday Brush with Old Man Winter

Another close call winter weather situation expected this Friday but a dry weekend follows. Big warm up next week.

MS and AL had thundersnows with 1-4 inches on the ground in some areas Thursday afternoon and evening.

Finally a string of days with sunshine

The snow fizzles, at last the rain ends and finally a stretch of much deserved sunny days for Atlanta, even though it will be chilly and then colder next week. I do not expect widespread black ice problems Friday morning but a few especially bridges, ramps and overpasses. Read on.

The problematic upper level low pressure energy in the jet stream passing across the SE USA.

On the line between big deal and no big deal

We could dodge a bullet or get smacked. The GA mountains are under the gun for sure and even worse for the Mountains of East TN and for KY/VA/NC. Read on...

European Model 500 mb heights/vorticity forecast chart showing upper-level closed low in the jet stream flow.
Various models do not agree on the strength or track, significant snow is most likely along and north of the low centers path which remains uncertain.

Snow or just an upper low?

This is not a winter storm situation with a snowstorm heading our way. It's been unseasonably warm and the ground and air are still mild. IF rain mixes with or changes to snow for a few hours work and school as normal would be expected as of now unless things change, which is always possible. Listen for updates daily on the radio and click the forecast links here at wsbradio.com and read my blog for more.

American Global Forecast System snowfall ending Friday the 18th. The GFS is just one of many models, it and the others will change multiple times every day. A model projection is not the real weather and is not my forecast.

Weather shifting Old Man Winter restless

The weather ground is shifting and there will be headlines about weather extremes in Europe and the USA before this month is done and next month, too. We will feel the changes here in the Southeast.

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