In my January 7th post written last Sunday the 6th I pointed out we'd have to look for a return to winter around the 20th give or take a few days following the January Thaw. Next Saturday will be around 20 degrees or so colder than this one was. Remember the temp roller coaster ride established in September? that ran through all of autumn and that I thought would continue for winter? The ride continues.

Signs still point to a turn to colder than normal polar air before the month is done, maybe accompanied by AT LEAST flurries, and the outlook for February is below-normal (on average not every day) so IF there is to be any  significant snow or ice for GA this winter it looks like the window is January 17-Feb 25 give or take a couple days on each end.

The following is not my specific forecast but a heads up on what models are showing and what may become my forecast in the future. If you paid attention to my past two email tease/twitter reports this is no surprise as you knew I thought it was coming:

Arctic Hammer, -10/-20 F Midwest, MAYBE HISTORIC COLD FOR GOOD CHUNK OF THE COUNTRY INCREASINGLY LIKELY 2nd  HALF OF JAN ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH OF GA but we could get a share.

There are major changes coming to the pattern and winter is going to make a monstrous counteroffensive.  The first cold air or arctic outbreak will  hit JAN  16-18.  This FIRST   blast of cold air will  NOT  penetrate into the Deep South because the pattern has not yet change completely.  The 1st blast of  cold air will  reach as far south as Missouri Kentucky and Virginia southwest to Texas and points west.  That cold air mass will slide off the coast on January 19 as a pattern undergoes a massive change and a new arctic air mass  with  possibly severe  cold  will arrive over much of the country east the Rockies JAN 19 along the U.S. Canada border into the  Upper Plains and Midwest and around or after  JAN  21  over the  East coast and Deep South.  This arctic outbreak will will get HUGE amount of  media play as it will affect homes business ski resorts energy demand but you heard it here first, twice now.  

The frost/freeze threat in CA may be followed by one in Texas and eventually FL before March. The models are starting to see what the SSW event sudden stratospheric warming told us should happen.
 
The operational European model   at day 9-10 showed a severe arctic outbreak of some of the cold as air that the country as seen in a few decades moving into the upper Plains and the upper Midwest and rapidly advancing toward the East CoastJ JAN 21-22-23.  This image shows the European model. On the left hand side we have the jet stream depiction  (500 MB  MAP)  end on the right hand side we have the surface map.  The   0z European model  here is splitting up the core of the bitter cold arctic air mass into several smaller factions without one big  gigantic  PV=  Polar Vortex... centered over some portion of southern or Eastern Canada.  This is a possible scenario which cannot be dismissed.    It also has some interesting possibilities for East Coast winter storm lovers because when you have   massive enormous PV that is displaced way to the south--- and it's over saying Minnesota or the Great Lakes... it is very difficult to get a big East Coast snowstorm and the snow storm track is actually displaced way to the south in that sort of setup.  The early Saturday morning European model  by not  showing 1 massive   PV over the  Great Lakes  allwos for some other possibilities .    The 0z SATURDAY   ECWMF   has two pieces of energy in the western U.S.   at Day 10  which look like they could phase and become a significant winter storm for some portion of the central and eastern U.S. in the 11-15 day. THE SURFACE MAP  shows a massive 1052 MB HIGH over the upper Plains with extreme arctic air rapidly spreading south and east .  The model clearly shows a intense core of extreme bitter cold arctic air over the Great Lakes

The  day 10 European ENSEMBLE  (0z  run)  does NOT support the operational run at all and shows a vastly different setup over North America a day 10.  It has a enormous and large PV centered over southeast portions of  Hudson's bay and SW Quebec and it is driving a arctic air mass into the heart of the Midwest and the northeast very quickly  still a very cold on the European DAY 10  ENSEMBLE ... there is  just NO  snowstorm threat for the East Coast at all.
 
Next we have the brand new12z   JAN 12  run of the  regular or operational GFS  valid  for DAY 10  at 500 mb   (JET STREAM)  .  This is pure weather porn and is one of the coldest --if not the coldest looking upper air map for the winter I have ever seen similar to  MID FEB 1994   severe arctic outbreak and the  historic January 1985 arctic air mass outbreak (Reagan Inaugural/Space Shuttle).  As you can see the model drives the heart of the PV  (polar vortex)   into northeast MN  near Duluth MN.  This is just extreme and if is correct the cold air coming into the U.S.  will  be historic and record setting.

Interestingly the operational GFS develops a wave of  LOW pressure on the arctic front over the southeast states JAN 22 which moves off the middle Atlantic  coast bringing a moderate snowstorm to much of the Middle Atlantic states from  western and Northern North Carolina into Southern New England by DAY 12-13  the and powerful enormous PV (arctic motherload load) moves through Michigan and then swings up into far southeastern Canada

The 12z GFS  ENSEMBLE is  in fairly close agreement with the operational GFS.   It does NOT  drop the  PV into Duluth Minnesota but the overall intensity the cold in the shape of the Norse trough the overall pattern is pretty close to the operational GFS .    The GFS   ensemble mean  has a pretty strong disturbance imbedded within the arctic jet which moves through the lower Midwest JAN 21 and develops a  wave of Low pressure off the SE  coast.  Given the intensity of the coal pattern and the model strong proclivity to suppress systems this  Low pressure area may be a bit too weak and could end up being closer to  the  coast....  and somewhat more in line with the operational GFS with the development of some sort ofLow on the arctic front over the Deep South  JAN 21-22.

After the arctic front arrives on the East Coast the cold air comes pouring southward on the  12z GFS ensemble and this image shows the huge amount of cold air dropping southward rapidly through Missouri Kentucky and Virginia...  while to the north the eastern Dakotas  MN WI  MI   IA New York State and New England turn extremely cold
The day 9  and 10  operational European models are now in  from  this  Saturday afternoon  -- the 12z  run.  Not surprisingly they are much different from the  0z  EUROPEAN   model early this morning .  Notice how the model here is taking the intense and very large an extremely cold PV and dropping a southward towards the great lakes .  This  IS  somewhat  similar  to  the 12z operational GFS  for JAN  20-21 and  in very close  agreement  with the GFS  ENSEMBLE with regard to the upcoming severe arctic outbreak. As always stiming subject to change and the devil is in the details and they are TBD to be determined.