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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Posted: 1:55 p.m. Sunday, Feb. 10, 2013

Volatile and changeable weather 

24 hour rainfall forecast
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By Kirk Mellish

Periods of rain on and off the next few days but I am not worried about any serious or widespread flooding at this point. Heaviest amounts in Central and South Georgia but will need to monitor for any northward shift. Looking further ahead at trends:

As of this writing it looks like the flooding threat for most of metro Atlanta is more routine than extreme. Updates in the 5 day forecast on-air on the radio 95.5FM and AM750, also online at wsbradio.com as needed. We'll have to watch for another polar plunge this weekend and be on the lookout for any "winter mischief" since it will be at least cold enough for snow.  Stay tuned.

Seems like the ONLY thing weather patterns and models agree on is that we will remain in an "active" weather pattern with above-normal precipitation and see-saw temps the rest of this month into the start of March.

As far as any snow, ice or lasting cold versus early spring, the models and teleconnection indices are as split as possible!

So it looks like a TBD take it one day at a time situation TFN.

The Dixie, Appalachian and Eastern Seaboard states have noticed the re-appearance of a flat subtropical high over Cuba and Florida ahead of each storm advancing from the West, which has resulted in sudden boosts in readings that effectively eliminate short-lived cold spells from the monthly averages.

We are running out of time for the winter season of 2012-2013 do make any kind of turn-about. It is not an impossibility that a lower latitude snowfall threat could emerge. But southwest flow in the upper atmosphere, and increased ridge presence over Cuba and Florida and lack of linkage from tropical forcing in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean says the CFS monthly projection for March (very warm southern and eastern sections) is likely to verify.

Preliminary signs of a warm spring and a normal to below normal tornado season for the nation as a whole and more drought problems central U.S. (SE unclear so far)

The ever unreliable American Global Forecast Model continues to try to bring serious winter to the nation almost coast to coast for an extended period! --  including here in the Southeast. However, its lack of success over the past month make it suspect.

So I suspect the up and down back and forth is more likely into early next month, but the bulk of March turns warmer than normal and spring is here and its on to summer.

Kirk Mellish

About Kirk Mellish

Kirk Mellish is Atlanta's first and only full-time radio meteorologist. He's also the FIRST broadcast meteorologist in Georgia and the Southeast to earn the American Meteorological Society's new Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) designation.

Send Kirk Mellish an email.