Does the warm winter mean a scorching summer and spring? Climatologic data shows surprisingly there is little correlation between the winter weather and the summer that follows. They are about evenly split in Georgia between being hot or going in the opposite direction and being neutral as far as summer goes. The peak pollen count has come early, we set a new all time record high tree pollen count today at 8,164...the old record pollen count was 6,013, set on April 12, 1999. Counts as high as yesterdays showed up last year 6 days later than this year. We are already above last years highest count.

If the past is prologue, then climate research shows that-- on average-- record warmth in March has been followed by a reversal by May. Temps in much of the country turn cooler than normal in April and May while here in the Southeast in past examples steped down to more normal levels. In fact some had a frost following the record warmth. No guarantee this will happen again but we take clues from the past to know whats possible.

The last time we had frosty temperatures was back on February 26th 2012, the last freeze was February 20th and on the 13th of Feb it was 25. The winter as a whole was the warmest since 1950 and about the 6th warmest since the 1800s at 5 degrees above average. Winter precipitation was 94% of normal or 6% drier than average. There was a TRACE of SNOW on January 2nd and 3rd as well as February 13th and 14th. Average snowfall in Atlanta is 2 inches. The average date of the last 32 in Atlanta (Hartsfield) is March 23rd. The record latest 32 in Atlanta (airport) was APRIL 25th 1910.

While neither a real hot nor real cold spring is forecast, the summer outlook is too soon to call. The rest of spring is still expected to be warmer than normal when averaged over the 60-day period, but not extreme like February and March.

The two-year La Nina in the Pacific Ocean (cooler than normal sea water) is expected to reverse to an El Nino (warmer than normal ocean temperatures) next fall and winter. In addition the Atlantic Ocean which has been on fire compared to normal is cooling to near normal levels and this trend is expected to continue, perhaps even going to cooler than normal in the years ahead.

The record warmth of March is expected to “back off” to more normal levels in April and May. No polar air mind you just not as extreme in the heat department, with at least some cooler days expected sometime after the first week of April. While most current computer models do not show frosty temperatures in the long-term some do and so do some of the analog years. More severe weather is expected in April and May but the worst should be concentrated North and West of Georgia.

While the nation is having a worse than normal tornado season as expected the focus should shift further north than last year and this season should be less intense than last year and much quieter for all regions of the country by the end of May.

 In looking at past record warmth in March years like 1907, 1910, 1921, 1935, 1945, 1946, 1973, 1974, 1976, 1982, 1990, 1991, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2007 and 2009 emerge. So what happened next in those years? The average of those years showed a distinctive cool off in both April and May and were followed by normal to cooler than normal summers with slightly below average summer rainfall.  April/May rainfall in those years was above normal while temperatures averaged near-normal. It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself or not. Click on the maps for a visual.

My current thinking is that this summer will be less hot than the past two, and July through September would be most likely to be near normal. One of the analog years that fits well so far is 2009. That year June was hot but July was cooler than normal and August was normal. The warming of the Pacific Ocean and cooling of the Atlantic implies fewer hurricanes in the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean than the hyper active season last year, with Texas and NC/SC at above-average risk. The total number of tropical storms that form would probably be near-average or slightly below average. A final summer outlook will be issued by the start of June.