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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Posted: 7:22 a.m. Wednesday, Jan. 18, 2012

January Thaw 

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8-14 day temperature forecast NAEFS Model photo
8-14 day temperature forecast NAEFS Model

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What do you call the January Thaw when winter temperatures have only been very cold for brief spells?

The January Yawn perhaps. On a national basis the January Thaw typically shows up around January 23rd give or take a few days. While the Pacific NW makes headlines for snow, much of the east and south US will have weather suitable for tennis and a backyard BBQ for much of the rest of January. 70 would be no surprise. Next month, while it should also average above-normal should also see some more polar air mass shots. We will have to monitor severe weather risks when spring warmth and winter chill collide the next 90 days.

Signs of some GB -AO/NAO are certainly in the models so next month could get more interesting IF the models are right. But that does not mean old man winter comes full force to the south.